News overview
Frontlines
The front lines have changed little in the past week. One of Surovikin's qualities, which was often mentioned when he was appointed, was that in Syria he had succeeded in making the various branches of the armed forces - including the air force - work well together. It seems that this policy has also led to an improvement in the Russian position in Ukraine. There was fierce fighting everywhere.
In the northeast, Russia appears to have stabilized the situation. It has even regained some ground near Kupyansk. Ukraine continues to launch attacks in hopes of forcing a breakthrough towards Luhansk. The Ukrainian attacks mainly take place further south, near Tern and towards Kreminna.
Near Soledar and Bakhmut, the Russian army is still making small conquests. At this rate, it could be months before they conquer these cities. Ukraine is gathering a large group of soldiers behind the front lines for a counter-offensive.
Near Kherson, Ukraine continues to attack. They are not very successful at the moment. But in the past we have seen many times that the Russian army, after repelling attacks on a number of occasions, still felt compelled to withdraw.
On October 21 and 22, the Russian Air Force carried out a large number of attacks on Ukrainian electricity supplies.
Martial law
Putin declared martial law in the four annexed regions on October 19. Less far-reaching measures were announced for Crimea and neighboring Russian provinces. It seems primarily an attempt to streamline and legalize the current situation. Kherson's evacuation may have been the deciding factor. This now has a legal basis and can also be enforced.
At least as interesting is the creation of a Special Coordination Council (SCC), which will be headed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. The SCC will also include representatives from the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of the Interior, the Ministry of Emergency Situations, the Russian Guard, the FSB, the Foreign Intelligence Service, the Chief Directorate for Special Programs of the President, other federal agencies and the State Council. The task of the council is to meet the needs that arise during the execution of a special operation. This applies to the supply and repair of weapons, medical and sanitation services, repair and construction work and logistics.
It seems that this council provides General Surovikin with a platform where he can directly request cooperation from all concerned.
Belarus
Belarus is now also digging trenches along its border with Ukraine. Russia is going to help Belarus set up a border security unit and send 9,000 troops to do so. Belarus itself has banned its soldiers from traveling abroad (with the exception of Russia). Lukashenko accuses NATO of exacerbating tensions on the country's western border. In addition, in Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine, terrorists are said to be preparing to carry out attacks in Belarus. The first arrests of Ukraine fighters who allegedly planned attacks have already been reported.
A major upgrade of Belarus' arsenal is also underway. Tanks and armored vehicles are transported en masse by rail to Russian factories to be modernized. Then they go back.
There is much speculation as to what the plan is here. Some think that Russia wants to invade Ukraine again from Belarus. The most likely scenario would then be an attack west of Kiev with the aim of stopping the arms supply. Others claim Belarus is under heavy pressure to join the war on Russia's side. According to opinion polls, an overwhelming majority of the Belarussian population is not in favor of this. All in all, it doesn't look like this will become an active front anytime soon. However, Russia is shelling Ukraine from Belarusian territory.
Gas
China has banned its state-owned companies from selling gas abroad. Because it gets extra Russian gas, China was able to export some to Europe. Apparently, China expects major shortages - and therefore high prices - on the world market this winter and wants to protect its own citizens.
Russia and the Nordstream company are is not the only parties that are not allowed to see the results of the Swedish investigation into the sabotage of Nord Stream 2. Germany and Denmark are not allowed access either. This only strengthens the impression that this was an American operation and evidence is hidden.
The Swedish magazine Expressen has published pictures of the damage to the pipeline (the article is partly behind a paywall; for more pictures see here and here). There is also a video.
Drones
Russia's imports of Iranian weapons are slowly expanding. Besides the Geran-2 (= Shahed-136; geran is Russian for geranium) they now also use the Geran-1 (Shahed-131). It is somewhat smaller (150 instead of 200 kilos). The Geran-2 can carry an explosive of 50 kilos. The Washington Post reported that Iran also plans to provide heavier drones (Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar) and missiles (Aresh 2).
It is unclear what NATO intends to do against these drones. They talk about jamming, but these drones are pre-programmed and lose contact with the home base along the way. They call it fire and forget. In the countryside it is often best to just shoot the drones. In the cities it is more difficult. You often hit other things as well. And if you hit such a drone and it crashes in a residential area, that's not such a success either. The drones are so cheap that Russia usually sends several at the same time via different routes to the same target.
The Geran-2 has a weak engine and the maximum speed is about 180 km per hour. This has the advantage that the engine generates little heat. Many air defenses look for heat sources and therefore miss the drone.
Both the Geran-2 and the Turkish Bayraktar make a sound like a moped. But the Geran-2 is a much cheaper drone (less than $20,000 vs. $5 million for a Bayraktar) that's only suitable as a suicide drone. The Bayraktar can be piloted from a distance and is therefore much more suitable for reconnaissance and bombing. The Bayraktar is larger (500 kg) and can carry more. However, the range is much smaller (150 km vs 2000 for the Geran-2). The Geran-2 is also much newer: it dates from last year while the Bayraktar has been in use since 2014. Iran supplies Russia with another drone that is more similar to the Bayraktar: the Mohajer-6.
Much about the production and delivery of the Geran-2 is unclear. Some Telegram posts claim that it is built in Russia and not imported. According to the British MI-6, Russia is currently making 500 drones per month. There are no images showing what is inside the Iranian planes that regularly fly to Moscow. Exporting Iranian weapons to Russia would be a violation of sanctions against Iran (SC Resolution 2231).
Good ideas are copied. Ukraine is working on a similar drone to the Geran-2. Russia is said to be refining the design.
Grain
The grain agreement that enables Ukrainian exports from Odessa is coming under pressure. The Russians have previously complained that the propaganda about export to developing countries has not come to fruition. The vast majority of Ukrainian grain goes to Europe. In addition, as a counter-concession, it had been agreed that Europe would lift its sanctions that hinder the export of Russian grain and fertilizer (including a ban on insurance of transport). But that still hasn't happened. The grain agreement expires in November. It will probably not be extended.
Weapons
Now that the former Warsaw Pact countries have run out of Soviet weapons, they are looking elsewhere in the world. Pakistan and Uganda are among those mentioned.
There are increasingly shortages of Western weapons. Besides the Javelin anti-tank weapons and the Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, there is also a shortage of M777 howitzers and ammunition for them.
Attack
Two Tajiks who volunteered for the Russian army killed 11 people at a training camp in Belgorod. They were also shot and killed themselves. The Russian Defense Ministry spoke of a terrorist attack, but independent Russian media claimed that the shooting followed a conflict between Islamic soldiers - who didn’t want to fight - with their officer, who spoke of a "holy war". ”, and thereafter called Allah “a coward.” .
Kherson
Russia has advised the people of the city of Kherson to leave the city. There are various explanations for this evacuation.
Ukraine is said to have gathered some 60,000 men to attack Russian troops west of the Dnieper River. These troops depend for supplies on a few bridges that are regularly shelled by Ukraine and thus appear vulnerable. Ukraine's Western allies are said to have ordered the country to capture Kherson as soon as possible. Heavy fighting is therefore to be expected and it is expected that the city will also be frequently shelled. On 8 November there are elections in the US and Biden would like to show some result.
In addition, there are fears that Ukraine will blow up the dams upstream in the river. That would cause a tidal wave that could severely affect the city - which is located on the river.
Ukraine is trying to turn this argument around by claiming that it is Russia that wants to blow up the dam in a false flag attack. That should cover a withdrawal and make it more difficult for Ukraine to cross the river and advance further. This is not credible: Blowing up the dam would make a withdrawal more difficult and undermine the Russian defenses. In addition, the left bank to which the Russians would retreat is lower than the right bank. So they would be most affected by it themselves.
Another motive are the sabotage and reconnaissance groups (DRGs) of the Ukrainian army. When they enter the city they will no longer be able to hide among and behind the population. People are allowed to stay if they really want to, but will then be extra monitored to ensure that they do not pass on any information to the Ukrainian army.
It is also possible that the Russian army is preparing for urban warfare. As we have seen in Mariupol and other cities, cities are very well defensible. Unfortunately, the result is great destruction. It is even a possibility that Russia will provide for withdrawal and reconquest later and that it wants to prevent Ukraine from using the presence of a civilian population to hide behind.
Will Russia withdraw from the west bank of the river? The NY Times reports that according to the Ukrainians Russia is withdrawing some units and equipment. But the danger of blowing up the dam is real and it is expected that Russia will take precautions. That doesn't mean it plans to give up the area. And if it wants to give up the area, it will probably strive to make the Ukrainian army pay a heavy price for the conquest - as it did in the Kharkov offensive.
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