According to DEBKAfile the Syrian uprising is almost over. This may be exaggerated but it is clear that the government offensive is having results.
However, I think the article misses part of the story. For a long time Assad had reacted rather low key to the protests. There were reports of snipers or soldiers now and then killing a few people at some demonstrations but there were also places where demonstrations lasted for months without problems. And according to reports 80% of the army stayed in the barracks. On the other hand the armed resistance seemed to be on a rather small scale although on some days battles with government troops were reported where several hundreds died.
Assad may have hoped that the protests would simply peter out. But he may also have used them as a counterweight against the more conservative forces in the country in order to achieve more openness. Wahabi-American policies prevented this to work by sabotaging all negotiations. A third reason may have been to prevent worse. Even government sources admit that its initial reactions to the uprising in Daraa - for which the local governor is blamed - were counterproductive. Putting down an uprising is not that easy: too much violence and too many innocent victims will lead to indignation that fuels the uprising. Assad's forces may not be refined enough to accomplish this.
Then suddenly, a few days before the UN debate the armed resistance was all over the country and even reported to be very close to Damascus. One general even concluded from this that the regime was about to fall and deserted. This offensive was probably an effort to influence the UN debate. However, it also seems to have convinced Assad that a crackdown was necessary.
According to the Economist: "More recently, the state-owned press has spoken ominously of the need to shift away from what it terms “restraint”. A new security plan does indeed seem to have been launched on February 3rd, a day seared in Syrian memories as the anniversary of [...]1982[...] Hama"
But Syria's trouble isn't over yet. Saudi Arabia has directed some 1500 Al Qaeda fighters from Iraq to Syria while there are also reports that some Sunni tribes in Iraq discuss sensing fighters to Syria.
This article at the BBC ("Syria's slide towards civil war gives an impression of how cruel both sides can be.
In the mean time Western countries keep discussing intervention strategies. That this may have much wider consequences is shown both by Russia preparing its special forces and Assad threatening Israel.
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Thursday, February 09, 2012
Cargo culters
Cargo cults happen in primitive societies where people believe that performing some magic rites will bring in the white men with their rich resources. The term originates from Melanesia where an ancient belief that ancestors and gods could provide sudden richness combined with the modern experience of first missionaries and later - during World War II - soldiers bringing in huge resources. To seduce those ancestors and gods they performed rites, built mock airports, etc.
The term "cargo cult" has become a metaphor for symbolic not effective action. It has been used for the behavior of many Third World leaders after their independence. Someone has even described communism as a cargo cult because it copies only a few random elements - such as steel production - from economically successful countries. But as it doesn't really understand how capitalism works it is doomed to fail.
As I see it cargo culting is popular nowadays. The favorite rite at the moment is being pro-Western. I think it is no coincidence that the most pro-Western leader of Russia - Yeltsin - left the greatest mess. Similarly, the most pro-Western leader of Serbia - Djindjic - became infamous for the corruption of his regime. I see the LDP in Serbia as the most modern version of this cult. But it may not be a coincidence either that pro-Western Tadic has been criticized for having implemented very few reforms.
Of course there is nothing wrong with being on good terms with the Western World - the main power of our times. The problem is that these people think that that is the only thing they have to do. In fact developing a country is mainly humble hard work, like getting trains to run on time, providing good roads, having everyone pay his taxes, preventing special interest groups from becoming too powerful and having judges who really speak justice.
This does not mean that the cargo culters never deliver. Sometimes there is some big foreign investment or some EU subsidy is awarded. But if you have a cool look at the long term the effect is small, the result is instable (see Greece) and - given the financial problems of the EU - the money available is shrinking.
In educational psychology you have the theory of conditioning. Basically it says that now and then (unpredictable) a big reward is the most addictive form of conditioning. Lottery organizers know all about this. But is also works with our leaders.
The Chinese show how one should develop a country. Unlike Russia they don't antagonize the West. They simply go their own way developing their country. When they build a road or an airport it is ready on time and the quality is good.
In the mean time the EU and the US are sliding increasingly towards cargo cult behavior. The financial deregulation was a typical example of that. Nobody knew how it was supposed to improve the economy, but as it had been accepted as an article of faith that deregulation helped the economy grow it was supposed this would help too.
The big advantage that the Chinese have is that they are a country of engineers. They know how things work or are supposed too work and that attitude pervades into the way the country is governed. In many Western countries the power has shifted to lawyers, economists and social scientists. Many of them don't know how things work and - more problematically - they don't care very much. They prefer big theories above simply going to the shop floor and see what the workers are actually doing.
The term "cargo cult" has become a metaphor for symbolic not effective action. It has been used for the behavior of many Third World leaders after their independence. Someone has even described communism as a cargo cult because it copies only a few random elements - such as steel production - from economically successful countries. But as it doesn't really understand how capitalism works it is doomed to fail.
As I see it cargo culting is popular nowadays. The favorite rite at the moment is being pro-Western. I think it is no coincidence that the most pro-Western leader of Russia - Yeltsin - left the greatest mess. Similarly, the most pro-Western leader of Serbia - Djindjic - became infamous for the corruption of his regime. I see the LDP in Serbia as the most modern version of this cult. But it may not be a coincidence either that pro-Western Tadic has been criticized for having implemented very few reforms.
Of course there is nothing wrong with being on good terms with the Western World - the main power of our times. The problem is that these people think that that is the only thing they have to do. In fact developing a country is mainly humble hard work, like getting trains to run on time, providing good roads, having everyone pay his taxes, preventing special interest groups from becoming too powerful and having judges who really speak justice.
This does not mean that the cargo culters never deliver. Sometimes there is some big foreign investment or some EU subsidy is awarded. But if you have a cool look at the long term the effect is small, the result is instable (see Greece) and - given the financial problems of the EU - the money available is shrinking.
In educational psychology you have the theory of conditioning. Basically it says that now and then (unpredictable) a big reward is the most addictive form of conditioning. Lottery organizers know all about this. But is also works with our leaders.
The Chinese show how one should develop a country. Unlike Russia they don't antagonize the West. They simply go their own way developing their country. When they build a road or an airport it is ready on time and the quality is good.
In the mean time the EU and the US are sliding increasingly towards cargo cult behavior. The financial deregulation was a typical example of that. Nobody knew how it was supposed to improve the economy, but as it had been accepted as an article of faith that deregulation helped the economy grow it was supposed this would help too.
The big advantage that the Chinese have is that they are a country of engineers. They know how things work or are supposed too work and that attitude pervades into the way the country is governed. In many Western countries the power has shifted to lawyers, economists and social scientists. Many of them don't know how things work and - more problematically - they don't care very much. They prefer big theories above simply going to the shop floor and see what the workers are actually doing.
Tuesday, February 07, 2012
Criminal women
I found an interesting article.
Nowadays only 10% of the crimes are committed by women. But the author Monon van der Heijden found that in the 17th century half of the crimes were committed by women. One reason is that in those times without social security needy women were more likely to steal. Another is that our vision on crimes has changed. Typical female crimes like witchery and prostitution are seldom or no longer punished while nowadays the more male crimes of drug abuse and trade provides in many countries a large part of the prison inmates.
Nowadays only 10% of the crimes are committed by women. But the author Monon van der Heijden found that in the 17th century half of the crimes were committed by women. One reason is that in those times without social security needy women were more likely to steal. Another is that our vision on crimes has changed. Typical female crimes like witchery and prostitution are seldom or no longer punished while nowadays the more male crimes of drug abuse and trade provides in many countries a large part of the prison inmates.
Will this be the new UN battle?
Business Week mentions what may be the next diplomatic step in the UN: trying to get the General Assembly overrule the Security Council:
The General Assembly can overrule the Security Council through a mechanism known as Resolution 377, or Uniting for Peace. It was passed in 1950 during the Korean War to circumvent the Soviet Union blocking action to protect South Korea.
It requires a two-thirds majority in the General Assembly to override the Security Council and its veto-wielding members and can be used when the 15-member decision-making body “fails to exercise its primary responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security.”
This could become a diplomatic battle similar to that about the recognition of Kosovo.
The General Assembly can overrule the Security Council through a mechanism known as Resolution 377, or Uniting for Peace. It was passed in 1950 during the Korean War to circumvent the Soviet Union blocking action to protect South Korea.
It requires a two-thirds majority in the General Assembly to override the Security Council and its veto-wielding members and can be used when the 15-member decision-making body “fails to exercise its primary responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security.”
This could become a diplomatic battle similar to that about the recognition of Kosovo.
Turkey burned its bridges to Syria
From the Guardian about Syria:
Sinan Ülgen, a former Turkish diplomat now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Ankara's preferred option would be regional support for limited Nato operations, including a no-fly zone and humanitarian corridor. "Turkey is beyond the point of no return," he said. "It has burned its bridges. The longer Assad stays in Syria, the worse it is. Turkey has bet heavily on regime change."
That is how far we have sunk as Western world. Turkey has made unwise moves and now it wants others to follow it in its folly so that its foolishness becomes hidden. What happened to facing up to your mistakes? Turkey could fire its present foreign minister as a scapegoat and try again but it looks like it lacks the courage.
Another article describes how far Turkey has gone in burning its bridges:
Unmarked NATO warplanes are arriving at Turkish military bases close to Iskenderum on the Syrian border, delivering weapons from the late Muammar Gaddafi’s arsenals as well as volunteers from the Libyan Transitional National Council who are experienced in pitting local volunteers against trained soldiers, a skill they acquired confronting Gaddafi’s army. Iskenderum is also the seat of the Free Syrian Army, the armed wing of the Syrian National Council. French and British special forces trainers are on the ground, assisting the Syrian rebels while the CIA and U.S. Spec Ops are providing communications equipment and intelligence to assist the rebel cause, enabling the fighters to avoid concentrations of Syrian soldiers.
Yet it seems unlikely that Turkey will intervene in Syria as its Alevi community is fiercely opposed to that.
The only opinion poll availabe shows 55% of the Syrians want Assad to stay. It has rightly be criticized for its small sample size but there is no doubt that Assad has considerable support. And although according to Peter Harling of the International Crisis Group his support is decreasing there are also reports about former protesters who now support the government because they see no viable alternative at the moment. See also this link.
The report of the Arab League observation mission was mainly critical about the violence used by the opposition. Maybe that was the real reason they were withdrawn.
This article ("Rebels without a clue") describes the SNC: dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood, disorganized, disconnected from the Syrians on the ground, and out of step with the broad spectrum of Syrian society. As a consequence their relation with the fighters and protesters in Syria is problematic. They are seen as trying to steal a part of the success of the protesters. It doesn't help either that many Syrian soldiers have been educated to see the Brotherhood as the main enemy.
This article describes how Assad behaves under the circumstances: "fully abreast of events on the ground - not the mere puppet of hardliners that some have portrayed - "relaxed and phlegmatic", and determined to see off the challenge, offering some reforms, strictly on his own terms."
Assad is described as holding back in his reaction to the uprising ("Eighty percent of the army is still in the barracks"), both because of the international reaction and because he doesn't want to give the army too much power.
A press overview on Syria can be found on Syria Comment. Other interesting sites: Brian Whitacre.
This article (Questioning the Syrian “Casualty List”) criticizes the death count as provided by SOHR, the UN and other organizations. It mentions examples of casualties on the list that shouldn't be there. As the SOHR website is in Arabic and refers to Facebook for English speakers one needs to understand Arabic to check it out.
Syria Witness is a very long page with many interviews with people who tend to be pro-opposition.
Sinan Ülgen, a former Turkish diplomat now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Ankara's preferred option would be regional support for limited Nato operations, including a no-fly zone and humanitarian corridor. "Turkey is beyond the point of no return," he said. "It has burned its bridges. The longer Assad stays in Syria, the worse it is. Turkey has bet heavily on regime change."
That is how far we have sunk as Western world. Turkey has made unwise moves and now it wants others to follow it in its folly so that its foolishness becomes hidden. What happened to facing up to your mistakes? Turkey could fire its present foreign minister as a scapegoat and try again but it looks like it lacks the courage.
Another article describes how far Turkey has gone in burning its bridges:
Unmarked NATO warplanes are arriving at Turkish military bases close to Iskenderum on the Syrian border, delivering weapons from the late Muammar Gaddafi’s arsenals as well as volunteers from the Libyan Transitional National Council who are experienced in pitting local volunteers against trained soldiers, a skill they acquired confronting Gaddafi’s army. Iskenderum is also the seat of the Free Syrian Army, the armed wing of the Syrian National Council. French and British special forces trainers are on the ground, assisting the Syrian rebels while the CIA and U.S. Spec Ops are providing communications equipment and intelligence to assist the rebel cause, enabling the fighters to avoid concentrations of Syrian soldiers.
Yet it seems unlikely that Turkey will intervene in Syria as its Alevi community is fiercely opposed to that.
The only opinion poll availabe shows 55% of the Syrians want Assad to stay. It has rightly be criticized for its small sample size but there is no doubt that Assad has considerable support. And although according to Peter Harling of the International Crisis Group his support is decreasing there are also reports about former protesters who now support the government because they see no viable alternative at the moment. See also this link.
The report of the Arab League observation mission was mainly critical about the violence used by the opposition. Maybe that was the real reason they were withdrawn.
This article ("Rebels without a clue") describes the SNC: dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood, disorganized, disconnected from the Syrians on the ground, and out of step with the broad spectrum of Syrian society. As a consequence their relation with the fighters and protesters in Syria is problematic. They are seen as trying to steal a part of the success of the protesters. It doesn't help either that many Syrian soldiers have been educated to see the Brotherhood as the main enemy.
This article describes how Assad behaves under the circumstances: "fully abreast of events on the ground - not the mere puppet of hardliners that some have portrayed - "relaxed and phlegmatic", and determined to see off the challenge, offering some reforms, strictly on his own terms."
Assad is described as holding back in his reaction to the uprising ("Eighty percent of the army is still in the barracks"), both because of the international reaction and because he doesn't want to give the army too much power.
A press overview on Syria can be found on Syria Comment. Other interesting sites: Brian Whitacre.
This article (Questioning the Syrian “Casualty List”) criticizes the death count as provided by SOHR, the UN and other organizations. It mentions examples of casualties on the list that shouldn't be there. As the SOHR website is in Arabic and refers to Facebook for English speakers one needs to understand Arabic to check it out.
Syria Witness is a very long page with many interviews with people who tend to be pro-opposition.
Monday, February 06, 2012
Dealing with insurrections
For a short time - when Gadaffi was about to take Banghazi - I was in favor of some sort of intervention. I hoped that foreign pressure to stop Gadaffi from taking Benghazi would open the road to negotiations that would lead to an interim government. Most likely Gadaffi would resign and someone else from Sirte would take his place while the regime would become more inclusive towards the other parts of the country. And the possibility of revenge and punishment for those who had taken part in the insurrection would be avoided. Gadaffi had shown enough preparedness to negotiate during the previous months that I assumed that he would agree to such a thing - provided we gave him some peaceful retirement and didn't send him to the ICC.
I may well have been right about Gadaffi, but I was definitely wrong about the Western countries. Instead of applying just enough pressure to get Gadaffi to negotiate they went for an all-out war against him. As a child could foretell this proved to be very dead and destructive. A war-by-proxy - as the West waged in Libya - is much more deadly than the tradition strategy of overwhelming force as Bush applied in Iraq. And both result in a lot of destruction and a near-anarchic state afterwards.
Now the West is repeating its mistakes in Syria. The senselessness of these policies - we don't have any interests in Syria and our policies are only dictated by Wahabi and Israeli interest groups - makes me believe that we may rather soon see the West loose its dominance in world affairs.
I may well have been right about Gadaffi, but I was definitely wrong about the Western countries. Instead of applying just enough pressure to get Gadaffi to negotiate they went for an all-out war against him. As a child could foretell this proved to be very dead and destructive. A war-by-proxy - as the West waged in Libya - is much more deadly than the tradition strategy of overwhelming force as Bush applied in Iraq. And both result in a lot of destruction and a near-anarchic state afterwards.
Now the West is repeating its mistakes in Syria. The senselessness of these policies - we don't have any interests in Syria and our policies are only dictated by Wahabi and Israeli interest groups - makes me believe that we may rather soon see the West loose its dominance in world affairs.
Sunday, February 05, 2012
Peacekeepers passive in South Sudan cattle raid
After Kosovo's march 2004 and the international passivity in Bosnia or Rwanda there is a new monument of peacekeeper passivity. A cattle raid on the town of Pibor in South-Sudan that lasted from 31 December to 3 January.
The East of South Sudan and neighboring areas in Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda are inhabited by cattle holding nomads. Raiding other tribes and stealing their cattle happens with a certain regularity. In this case some 8000 men from a section of the Nuer attacked Pibor, a town inhabited by Murle. Hundreds of people may have been killed and maybe 300,000 cattle were stolen. The Nuer claim that it was a revenge for Murle stealing their children. Stealing children happens quite often too in that region.
Intriguing facts are that one exiled Nuer in the US had collected money for the raid, UN helicopters had seen he fighters coming for days coming and had even flown in some 400 soldiers and that these soldiers didn't fire a shot. They said that they feared to be overrun.
They may be right for the situation but that doesn't take away that it is their responsibility to prevent such attacks. Not preventing such attacks decreases its cerdibility.
The UN has reacted by saying that their early warning allowed people to flee and limited the number of casualties.
The East of South Sudan and neighboring areas in Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda are inhabited by cattle holding nomads. Raiding other tribes and stealing their cattle happens with a certain regularity. In this case some 8000 men from a section of the Nuer attacked Pibor, a town inhabited by Murle. Hundreds of people may have been killed and maybe 300,000 cattle were stolen. The Nuer claim that it was a revenge for Murle stealing their children. Stealing children happens quite often too in that region.
Intriguing facts are that one exiled Nuer in the US had collected money for the raid, UN helicopters had seen he fighters coming for days coming and had even flown in some 400 soldiers and that these soldiers didn't fire a shot. They said that they feared to be overrun.
They may be right for the situation but that doesn't take away that it is their responsibility to prevent such attacks. Not preventing such attacks decreases its cerdibility.
The UN has reacted by saying that their early warning allowed people to flee and limited the number of casualties.
Saturday, February 04, 2012
Election fraud in Egypt
It is old news, but as it is ignored in the media it want to repeat it here: the later rounds of the Egyptian elections were fraudulent with most fraud by the Islamist parties.
The fact that this is ignored illustrates the point I have made before that the "Arab Spring" is mainly about the Gulf States imposing their fundamentalism on the other Arab states. It is no coincidence that the only two Wahabi ruled states (Qatar and Saudi Arabia) are the most active asking for intervention. Qatar (a mini-state with some 250,000 citizens) is very probably taking the lead because the Saudi's have a credibility problem since 9/11.
The fact that this is ignored illustrates the point I have made before that the "Arab Spring" is mainly about the Gulf States imposing their fundamentalism on the other Arab states. It is no coincidence that the only two Wahabi ruled states (Qatar and Saudi Arabia) are the most active asking for intervention. Qatar (a mini-state with some 250,000 citizens) is very probably taking the lead because the Saudi's have a credibility problem since 9/11.
Friday, February 03, 2012
A man to watch on Syria
Keep an eye on Adnan Arour, a Sunni firebrand who preaches from Saudi Arabia on Saudi funded satellite channels. Some of his preaches can also be seen on Youtube. His most known statement is that Alawites who resist the revolution should be chopped and their flesh fed to the dogs.
Another tele-preacher calling for the fall of Assad is Youssef Al-Qardawi. He is president of the International Union of Scholars and also of the European Council for Fatwa and Research.
Yet another tele-voice is the Saudi cleric Saleh Al-Luhaidan who urged: “kill a third of Syrians so the other two-thirds may live”. Kill one-third of the Syrian population? That would imply slaying the Christians, Jews, Shiites, Druze and Alawite.
Other Salafist Sheikhs (preachers on tape) from Saudi Arabia: Ibn Baz and Ibn Ottaimin
Saudi funded hatred trying to destroy Syria.
Postscript 1: Arour is often painted as someone with little influence. However, according to this article (The Shadow War Behind Syria’s Rebellion: Foreign Backers Jockey for Influence in Turkey) in September 2012 a group of senior military defectors and the Saudi-based Salafi sheikh Adnan al-Arour set up the Joint Command of the Revolutionary Military Councils. That puts him in the center.
Another tele-preacher calling for the fall of Assad is Youssef Al-Qardawi. He is president of the International Union of Scholars and also of the European Council for Fatwa and Research.
Yet another tele-voice is the Saudi cleric Saleh Al-Luhaidan who urged: “kill a third of Syrians so the other two-thirds may live”. Kill one-third of the Syrian population? That would imply slaying the Christians, Jews, Shiites, Druze and Alawite.
Other Salafist Sheikhs (preachers on tape) from Saudi Arabia: Ibn Baz and Ibn Ottaimin
Saudi funded hatred trying to destroy Syria.
Postscript 1: Arour is often painted as someone with little influence. However, according to this article (The Shadow War Behind Syria’s Rebellion: Foreign Backers Jockey for Influence in Turkey) in September 2012 a group of senior military defectors and the Saudi-based Salafi sheikh Adnan al-Arour set up the Joint Command of the Revolutionary Military Councils. That puts him in the center.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)