tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-171499922024-03-08T12:21:47.264+01:00Conflict and CompromiseThoughts on ethnic and international conflicts and the democratic ideal. Content is shared by the Creative Commons CC-BY-SA 4.0 International license (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0).Wim Roffelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05950733237377413606noreply@blogger.comBlogger656125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17149992.post-59397599681717195612023-10-28T22:04:00.000+02:002023-10-28T22:04:02.490+02:00Israel's arrogance dooms it<h2 class="header-with-anchor-widget">Nagorno Karabach</h2>
<p>In
1993 Armenians from Nagorno Karabach aiming for independence conquered a
large part of Azerbaijan. In the following years they rejected
proposals that would recognize their independence in exchange for giving
up most of the extra Azeri territory that they had conquered.</p><p>Azerbaijan
has 10 million inhabitants and is supported by Turkey. Armenia has only
3 million inhabitants. Yet the Armenians were confident that they would
be able to maintain their military dominance forever.</p><p>We know how it ended: last month all Armenians were ethnically cleansed from Nagorno Karabach. </p><p>Israel
is in a very similar position and is making the same mistake. Israel
has 9 million inhabitants (7 million of them Jews). Israel, Gaza and the
Westbank alone together contain more than 7 million Palestinians. In
addition they have the support from the the Arab world (350 million
people) and the Muslim world (over 1 billion people).</p><p>Like the
Armenians Israel is confident about its military superiority. But it is
unlikely that it will be able to maintain that forever. It may take
another 10 or 100 years but there will come a time when they are weaker
than the Palestinians. And if by that time they haven’t forged some kind
of compromise with them they may lose big.</p><p>In fact there is
already some reason to doubt Israel’s military superiority. When Israel
won the wars of 1956, 1967 and 1973 it still contained quite a few
veterans from the Second World War while such veterans were absent on
the other side. If a war would break out now it would face 100,000
Hezbollah fighers with battle experience from the Syrian civil war. In
contrast its own fighters don’t have such experience. </p><p>Israel
still has superior weapons, Hamas and Hezbollah lack an air force and
air defense and Israel is supported by the US. But there is no guarantee
that US support may last forever. And Israel’s Arab neighbors do have a
modren army. </p><p>Israel’s atom weapon isn’t a guarantee either:
there is already an Islamic nuclear bomb in Pakistan that was developed
with Saudi money. </p>
<h2 class="header-with-anchor-widget">Colonial mindset</h2>
<p>What
Israel and Armenia have in common is contempt for their adversaries.
They see them as some type of inferior people and believe that they will
never grow up to become an equal adversary. </p><p>The way Israel
treats the Palestinians is reminiscent of the way the Indians were
treated in 19th century America: a pattern of never ending lies and
injustices.</p><p>Similar views of a segment of the population could be
found in colonial societies and apartheid South Africa. It is no
coincidence that Israels system is often called apartheid. </p><p><span>In such a mindset the people that are seen as inferior are often </span><a href="https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v45/n20/adam-shatz/vengeful-pathologies" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">described</a><span>
as almost animals. When they show themselves recalcitrant they are
often subjected to severe punishment, as we can now see happening in
Gaza. It is genuinely believed that such terror will work. </span></p><p>One
story I have seen several times recently is how Israel bombed the
houses of Hezbollah leaders during the invasion in Lebanon after
Hezbollah had attacked Israel. The story always ends with the contented
observation that the Hezbollah leaders later said that they wouldn’t
have attacked when they had known that Israel would react so severely. </p><p>Israel
is deceiving itself. The colonial powers used similar methods. Yet none
was able to keep its colonies. They should also have studied the life
of Shamil Basayev, one of the most infamous Chechen terrorists. He
became such a radical after in 1995 eleven members of his family
including his mother, his two children and a brother and sister had been
killed in a Russian air raid.</p><p><span>We still don’t know what
motivated the killings by Hamas during their invasion in Israeli
territory on 7 October. It seems that a large part was killed by the
ISraeli army that </span><a href="https://new.thecradle.co/articles/what-really-happened-on-7th-october" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">completely ignored</a>
the presence of Israeli citizens and resorted to heavy shelling when it
reconquered some kibbutzes. Some of them may have been done by
Palestinians not connected to Hamas who took the opportunity to leave
Gaza and explore the area “liberated“ by their Hamas fellow Gazians. But
it is a fact that Mohammed Deif, the military commander of Hamas lost
his wife and daughter in an Israeli bombing in 2014.</p>
<h2 class="header-with-anchor-widget">Ethnic cleansing<div class="header-anchor-widget offset-top" id="§ethnic-cleansing"></h2>
<p>One “solution“ that seems <a href="https://thegrayzone.com/2023/10/24/zionist-think-tank-palestinian-genocide/" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">increasingly popular</a><span>
in Israel is the complete ethnic cleansing of Gaza whereby all its
inhabitant should be driven out into Egypt. In its simplicity it is
seductive. Unfortunately the US seems to support this initiative by
pressuring Egypt to open its borders.</span></p><p>Yes, it can work.
But, as the Armenians of Nagorno Karabach experienced, it can also be a
template that later is used to cleanse you. When you dominate you can
set a template for how the sides will relate in the future. When your
message is that they cannot live in peace together as equals that may
come back to haunt you.</p><p>There are several reasons to expect that
the Arab world will not be happy to cooperate. They see a major
precedent problem: if a cleansing of Gaza is successful it is quite
likely the Westbank will be next. And even that will not be enough:
biblical Israel included parts of Jordan and Southern Lebanon. And king
David’s empire ran up to the Euphates. Israeli extremists will be happy
to grab any excuse to start a war to annexate all these territories too.
On the internet you can find images like the following:
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhz6nI6kc2vNTODcqhO9jXxCkIo_zoiqTpmd390b0kN9RMA3LiJ9esdpyjM-fFVPDggKSVmjOAo29DhDItxYONYWyP1M9dG4dOsHgxUo9gK9R_Okq3qeEP3a2AgULUsz3h2unT5eXzgNmH-KlRn0WUh8VUeExMvHw3iG0xy2KAjQjLv3xN-Y1dV/s305/sources.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="287" data-original-width="305" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhz6nI6kc2vNTODcqhO9jXxCkIo_zoiqTpmd390b0kN9RMA3LiJ9esdpyjM-fFVPDggKSVmjOAo29DhDItxYONYWyP1M9dG4dOsHgxUo9gK9R_Okq3qeEP3a2AgULUsz3h2unT5eXzgNmH-KlRn0WUh8VUeExMvHw3iG0xy2KAjQjLv3xN-Y1dV/s320/sources.jpg"/></a></div>
<p>It is unlikely that things will come that far. But it is clear that
ambitious politicians will always find excuses to grab territory to
please aggressive nationalists.</p><p>Peace requires that the sides
recognize each other as equals. Ethnic cleansing will just move the
borders but leave the conflict intact. </p>
<h2 class="header-with-anchor-widget">The alternative</h2>
<p>The alternative is that Israel finally recognizes that the rights of the Palestinians. That will result in a two-state solution.</p><p>Israel
is the product of ethnic cleansing. There is no denial possible about
that. But Israel can conclude an agreement with the Palestinians (and
the Arabs more in general) in which they give up their expansionist
goals in exchange for the Palestinians accepting that Israel is here to
stay.</p><p>As Israel is at the moment the dominant party it will be the
hardest for it to make that deal. It takes a leader with a vision like
Rabin. Unfortunately Israel is nowadays ruled by the opportunist
Netanyahu whose only goal seems to be to stay in power.</p><p>Israel
likes to paint Palestinians as terrorists who will never accept the
existence of Israel. But there are lots of signals that even Hamas will
accept it given a decent deal. Israel’s claim is just an excuse for not
making concessions and keeping the process of grabbing Palestinian land
in the Westbank going.</p><p>Of course it is possible that a small
faction of the Palestians will reject the deal and keep making terrorist
attacks. But Israel can deal with that and they will slowly fade away.
And given that Israel contributes to their welfare rather than harms it
Israel’s neighbors - including a Palestinian state - will have no reason
to support such terrorism.Wim Roffelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05950733237377413606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17149992.post-65290733280319172532022-11-05T17:52:00.001+01:002022-11-05T17:52:46.018+01:00War in Ukraine 23-29 October<p> News review</p><div class="" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><div class="available-content" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; display: flex;"><div class="body markup" dir="auto" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; margin-bottom: var(--size-16); width: 728px; word-break: break-word;">
<h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: var(--color-primary); font-family: var(--font_family_headings, var(--font_family_headings_preset, "SF Compact Display", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol")); font-size: 1.375em; font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: 1.16em; margin: 0px 0px 0.625em; position: relative;">Introduction<div class="header-anchor-widget" id="§introduction" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; height: 30.3px; left: -56px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 56px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; align-items: center; display: flex; height: 1.2em; left: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 40px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://wimroffel.substack.com/i/81967407/introduction" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; align-items: center; border-radius: 50%; cursor: pointer; display: flex; height: 40px; justify-content: center; opacity: 0; width: 40px;"><svg class="header-anchor-widget-icon" fill="none" height="20" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path><path d="M14 11a5 5 0 0 0-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 0 0 7.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path></svg></div></div></div></h3><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">There is still little movement in the front lines. The mud season (in Russian “rasputitsa”; in Ukrainian “bezdorizhzhya”) has arrived and it affects both sides.</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">On Sunday, October 23, Ukraine had a breakthrough near Kreminna (north of the Donbass). This did not last long: Russia quickly built a new line of defense. A few days later, Kadyrov posted a<span> </span></span><a href="https://t.me/NovichokRossiya/18141" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">message on Telegram</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; "><span> </span>in which he blamed General Lapin for the breakthrough. He had also criticized this general<span> </span></span><a href="https://t.me/NovichokRossiya/13751" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">a few weeks earlier</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">. On Saturday, reports appeared on Telegram that the general had been fired. There is a lot of different speculation on Telegram about what is going on but nothing has been officially announced. At the moment it seems most likely to me that he has resigned. There would be a medical examination and vacation and then appointment in another position.</span></p>
<h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: var(--color-primary); font-family: var(--font_family_headings, var(--font_family_headings_preset, "SF Compact Display", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol")); font-size: 1.375em; font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0px 0.625em; position: relative;">Propaganda war<div class="header-anchor-widget" id="§propaganda-war" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; height: 30.3px; left: -56px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 56px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; align-items: center; display: flex; height: 1.2em; left: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 40px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://wimroffel.substack.com/i/81967407/propaganda-war" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; align-items: center; border-radius: 50%; cursor: pointer; display: flex; height: 40px; justify-content: center; opacity: 0; width: 40px;"><svg class="header-anchor-widget-icon" fill="none" height="20" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path><path d="M14 11a5 5 0 0 0-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 0 0 7.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path></svg></div></div></div></h3><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">Meanwhile, the propaganda war is ramped up to unprecedented heights. In the West, we mainly see the pro-Ukrainian side of this. Typical examples were headlines along the lines of “Russia blew up Nord Stream, says Ukraine“. In this way, “consensus” is gradually created. Russia's opinion is especially shown later, after consensus on the facts has been established. It then mainly illustrates that Russia is lying. Of course you can see the same mechanism at work in mirror image in Russia.</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">In the “fog of war” it is generally impossible to know the exact reality. I'm just trying to present the arguments here. Everyone can draw their own conclusions.</p>
<h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: var(--color-primary); font-family: var(--font_family_headings, var(--font_family_headings_preset, "SF Compact Display", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol")); font-size: 1.375em; font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0px 0.625em; position: relative;">Nuclear war<div class="header-anchor-widget" id="§nuclear-war" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; height: 30.3px; left: -56px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 56px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; align-items: center; display: flex; height: 1.2em; left: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 40px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://wimroffel.substack.com/i/81967407/nuclear-war" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; align-items: center; border-radius: 50%; cursor: pointer; display: flex; height: 40px; justify-content: center; opacity: 0; width: 40px;"><svg class="header-anchor-widget-icon" fill="none" height="20" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path><path d="M14 11a5 5 0 0 0-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 0 0 7.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path></svg></div></div></div></h3><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">In his<span> </span></span><a href="https://en.zona.media/article/2022/09/21/Putin" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">September 21 speech</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; "><span> </span>in which Putin announced the mobilization, he also said the following:</span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><em style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">Nuclear blackmail has started. Not only does it mean attacks on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant supported by the west, but also statements by some representatives of NATO countries about the possibility and admissibility of using mass nuclear weapons against Russia.</em></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><em style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">Those who make such statements against Russia—I'd like to remind you that our country also has various means of destruction. And, in some areas, more advanced than those of NATO countries. If the territorial unity of our country is threatened, in order to protect Russia and our nation, we will unquestionably use all the weapons we have. This is no bluff.</em></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><em style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">Citizens of Russia can be confident that the territorial integrity of our Motherland, our independence and freedom are secured. I will highlight this once again: by any means possible. And those who try to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the wind might turn back in their direction.</em></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">He had made similar statements before. For example, at the start of the war,<span> </span></span><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63414324" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">he said</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">,<span> </span></span><em style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">"And now a few important - very important - words to those who may be tempted to meddle from the sidelines in what's happening. Those who try to get in our way, or create threats to our country and our people, should be aware: Russia's response will be instantaneous and bring the kind of consequences you have never experienced in history."</em></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">Russia's<span> </span></span><a href="https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2022-09-18-learn-about-russia-s-nuclear-doctrine-and-when-does-the-president-press-the-launch-button-.Sy-eHOPV-j.html" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">nuclear doctrine</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; "><span> </span>that it will only use nuclear weapons if it is threatened as a country is by no means new. The reason why it suddenly became an issue is the annexation of four Ukrainian regions. Some of it is under Ukrainian control and the question was how Russia would explain that in the context of its nuclear doctrine.</span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">Meanwhile, Putin has explicitly stated that he sees no need to use nuclear weapons in the current situation and the Pentagon and other Western bodies have also stated that they do not expect it. Incidentally, we should not underestimate the Western willingness to use nuclear weapons.</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">The US has<span> </span></span><a href="https://eurasiantimes.com/us-deploy-high-accuracy-nuclear-weapons-to-europe/" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">accelerated the upgrade</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; "><span> </span>of its nuclear weapons in Europe. This should now be completed in December.</span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">Finland is said to have<span> </span></span><a href="https://www.newsweek.com/finland-will-allow-nato-place-nuclear-weapons-border-russia-1754925" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">consented</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; "><span> </span>to the placement of US nuclear weapons on its territory. It would even have been a precondition for joining NATO. There would also be consultations with Poland about placement.</span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">We also see signs of<span> </span></span><a href="https://medium.com/predict/russias-nuclear-weapons-may-be-useless-5dd22d44b568" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">daydreaming</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; "><span> </span>that Russia's strategic nuclear weapons may not work. Strategic nuclear weapons are hydrogen bombs and the explosive part of them is tritium. But tritium has a half-life of only 12 and a half years, so it needs to be refreshed regularly. If Russia would have cut back on that (tritium is very expensive), it now has a problem.</span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">John Helmer<span> </span></span><a href="http://johnhelmer.net/the-us-signals-readiness-to-launch-nuclear-strike-against-russia/" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">asked</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; "><span> </span>the attention for a report in<span> </span></span><a href="https://vz.ru/world/2022/10/24/1183495.html" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">VZGlyad</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">, a newspaper with good contacts with the Russian secret services. In the article the visit of an US official to a nuclear submarine in the Persian Gulf is discussed. It is highly unusual that the US publishes anything that provides information about the location of its nuclear submarines. That it does that for a location on a relatively short distance to the Russian heartland is interpreted as a subtle threat. Remarkable is that the article considers Russia’s nuclear deterrence as rather weak.</span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">On Thursday, October 27,<span> </span></span><a href="https://thehill.com/policy/international/3677256-zelensky-calls-for-preventive-action-to-deter-russian-nuclear-strikes/" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">Zelensky called on the West for a preemptive strike</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; "><span> </span>to prevent Russian use of nuclear weapons. This sounded like a call to launch a nuclear attack, but when global outrage erupted, Zelensky rushed to say he didn't mean it that way.</span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">Here is<span> </span></span><a href="https://t.me/waronfakesen/1318" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">debunking</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; "><span> </span>of the claim that Russia wants to use nuclear arms on the War-on-Fakes site.</span></p>
<h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: var(--color-primary); font-family: var(--font_family_headings, var(--font_family_headings_preset, "SF Compact Display", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol")); font-size: 1.375em; font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0px 0.625em; position: relative;">Dirty bomb<div class="header-anchor-widget" id="§dirty-bomb" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; height: 30.3px; left: -56px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 56px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; align-items: center; display: flex; height: 1.2em; left: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 40px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://wimroffel.substack.com/i/81967407/dirty-bomb" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; align-items: center; border-radius: 50%; cursor: pointer; display: flex; height: 40px; justify-content: center; opacity: 0; width: 40px;"><svg class="header-anchor-widget-icon" fill="none" height="20" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path><path d="M14 11a5 5 0 0 0-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 0 0 7.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path></svg></div></div></div></h3><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">The pro-Russian Telegram channels have been buzzing for a while. On Sunday, October 23, Western media could no longer ignore the claim that Ukraine was preparing a “dirty bomb”. On that day, Russian defense minister Shoigu -<span> </span></span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/27/vladimir-putin-says-dirty-bomb-claims-to-nato-were-made-on-his-orders" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">on Putin's orders</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; "><span> </span>- phoned his British, American, French and Turkish colleagues. He talked about this subject with at least three of them. Later in the week, Shoigu also called China and India, among others. He also sent a letter to the Security Council. In response, UN nuclear chief<span> </span></span><a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-putin-address-weapons-b2212441.html" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">Rafael Grossi said</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; "><span> </span>he would send inspectors to the two sites mentioned by Shoigu. This is done at the request of the Ukrainian government, so the chances of finding anything are slim.</span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">Similarly, Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, Chief of the Russian Armed Forces for Radiation, Chemical and Biological Protection, gave a briefing<span> </span></span><a href="https://ria.ru/20221023/provokatsiya-1825967691.html" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">Ria Novosti</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; "><span> </span>summed up the allegations as:<span> </span></span><em style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">It has become known from various sources that Kiev under the leadership of Western trustees has already begun the practical implementation of this plan. The leadership of the Vostochniy [=eastern] mining and processing plant [SChID-GZK], located in the town of Zhovti Vody in the Dnepropetrovsk region, as well as the Kiev Institute of Nuclear Research, was tasked with creating the very "dirty bomb" . Work on it is already in its final stage.</em></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><em style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">At the same time, on behalf of Volodymyr Zelensky, employees of the Office of the President of Ukraine from his immediate vicinity are conducting secret contacts with representatives of the UK on the issue of a possible transfer of nuclear weapons components to the Kiev authorities.</em></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><em style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">The provocation organizers' calculation is that if it is successfully carried out, most countries will react extremely harshly to the "nuclear incident" in Ukraine. As a result, Moscow will lose the support of many of its key partners and the West will once again try to raise the issue in order to strip Russia of permanent UN Security Council status and increase anti-Russian rhetoric.</em></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">Ukraine promptly gave its own twist to the message, claiming that if Russia helped this message out, it must mean that they were working on a dirty bomb themselves and that they wanted to hide it that way.</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">Journalism has once again shown its worst side. The<span> </span></span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/24/us-dismisses-transparently-false-russian-claims-of-ukraine-plan-to-use-dirty-bomb" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">Guardian</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; "><span> </span>rejected the Russian claim, stating that there is no evidence that Ukraine has radioactive material in its military arsenal. But Ukraine has a lot of radioactive material at its nuclear power plants and that's all you need for a dirty bomb. A dirty bomb is an ordinary bomb that scatters radioactive material.</span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">Slovenia<span> </span></span><a href="https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/russland-hat-beweisbilder-von-schmutziger-bombe-offenbar-gefaelscht-18416906.html" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">claimed</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; "><span> </span>that some of the photos that Russia<span> </span></span><a href="https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1584547788335251462" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">cites as evidence</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; "><span> </span>are old Slovenian photos. But if you look at the photo in question, it is only used as an illustration for what a dirty bomb is and not as proof.</span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">The website<span> </span></span><a href="https://www.ruetir.com/2022/10/29/moscow-ramps-up-tension-over-dirty-bomb/" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">The Insider claims</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; "><span> </span>that the two institutions mentioned only process low-level radioactive materials. The question is whether this matters. If Ukraine organizes a false flag operation, it probably won't want to use too much radioactive material. It should be enough to impress international public opinion but they won’t want to pollute their country more than is strictly necessary.</span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">I certainly think Ukraine is capable of doing such a thing. Their near-daily shelling of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant is in fact also an attempted dirty bomb. They will not easily damage the nuclear power plant itself, the shell is too strong for that. But the storage of nuclear waste is vulnerable.</p>
<h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: var(--color-primary); font-family: var(--font_family_headings, var(--font_family_headings_preset, "SF Compact Display", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol")); font-size: 1.375em; font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0px 0.625em; position: relative;">Tactical Nuclear Weapons<div class="header-anchor-widget" id="§tactical-nuclear-weapons" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; height: 30.3px; left: -56px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 56px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; align-items: center; display: flex; height: 1.2em; left: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 40px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://wimroffel.substack.com/i/81967407/tactical-nuclear-weapons" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; align-items: center; border-radius: 50%; cursor: pointer; display: flex; height: 40px; justify-content: center; opacity: 0; width: 40px;"><svg class="header-anchor-widget-icon" fill="none" height="20" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path><path d="M14 11a5 5 0 0 0-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 0 0 7.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path></svg></div></div></div></h3><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">Meanwhile, a similar discussion about tactical nuclear weapons has also<span> </span></span><a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/26/europe/russia-ukraine-tactical-nuclear-weapons-explainer-intl-hnk-ml/index.html" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">erupted</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">. These are weapons for on the battlefield. In the NATO story, Russia would be on the losing side and would like to turn its fortunes around. Russia claims that the West supplies Ukraine with parts of nuclear weapons so that it can stage a false flag nuclear explosion.</span></p>
<h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: var(--color-primary); font-family: var(--font_family_headings, var(--font_family_headings_preset, "SF Compact Display", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol")); font-size: 1.375em; font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0px 0.625em; position: relative;">Bioweapons<div class="header-anchor-widget" id="§bioweapons" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; height: 30.3px; left: -56px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 56px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; align-items: center; display: flex; height: 1.2em; left: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 40px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://wimroffel.substack.com/i/81967407/bioweapons" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; align-items: center; border-radius: 50%; cursor: pointer; display: flex; height: 40px; justify-content: center; opacity: 0; width: 40px;"><svg class="header-anchor-widget-icon" fill="none" height="20" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path><path d="M14 11a5 5 0 0 0-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 0 0 7.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path></svg></div></div></div></h3><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">On October 23, Shoigu also submitted a<span> </span></span><a href="https://www.independent.ie/world-news/russia-seeks-un-probe-of-claims-on-ukraine-biological-labs-42094852.html" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">draft resolution</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; "><span> </span>to the UN Security Council calling for an<span> </span></span><a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/russia-at-unsc-seeks-probe-of-claims-on-ukraine-s-biological-labs-122102501097_1.html" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">investigation</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; "><span> </span>into the biolabs in Ukraine. Attached to this request were 310 pages of evidence.</span></p>
<h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: var(--color-primary); font-family: var(--font_family_headings, var(--font_family_headings_preset, "SF Compact Display", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol")); font-size: 1.375em; font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0px 0.625em; position: relative;">Ammonia<div class="header-anchor-widget" id="§ammonia" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; height: 30.3px; left: -56px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 56px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; align-items: center; display: flex; height: 1.2em; left: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 40px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://wimroffel.substack.com/i/81967407/ammonia" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; align-items: center; border-radius: 50%; cursor: pointer; display: flex; height: 40px; justify-content: center; opacity: 0; width: 40px;"><svg class="header-anchor-widget-icon" fill="none" height="20" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path><path d="M14 11a5 5 0 0 0-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 0 0 7.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path></svg></div></div></div></h3><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">An<span> </span></span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/un-proposed-ammonia-deal-ukraine-would-stabilise-grain-deal-diplomat-2022-09-13/" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">ammonia pipeline</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; "><span> </span>runs from Togliatti in Russia to Pivdenny near Odessa, from where the ammonia is exported. The ammonia is used elsewhere in the world - especially North Africa - for fertilizer production. This pipeline was closed at the start of the war. This transport would also be restored as part of the grain agreement. But as in other areas, Russia complains that this has not happened.</span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">The Russian producers are TogliattiAzot and Rossosh. The deal is that it will sell the ammonia at the Ukrainian border to the American company Trammo.</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">There are also<span> </span></span><a href="https://t.me/intelslava/39791" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">rumors</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; "><span> </span>about this pipeline that Ukraine is planning sabotage.</span></p>
<h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: var(--color-primary); font-family: var(--font_family_headings, var(--font_family_headings_preset, "SF Compact Display", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol")); font-size: 1.375em; font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0px 0.625em; position: relative;">Kherson dam<div class="header-anchor-widget" id="§kherson-dam" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; height: 30.3px; left: -56px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 56px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; align-items: center; display: flex; height: 1.2em; left: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 40px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://wimroffel.substack.com/i/81967407/kherson-dam" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; align-items: center; border-radius: 50%; cursor: pointer; display: flex; height: 40px; justify-content: center; opacity: 0; width: 40px;"><svg class="header-anchor-widget-icon" fill="none" height="20" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path><path d="M14 11a5 5 0 0 0-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 0 0 7.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path></svg></div></div></div></h3><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">Of course, Ukraine<span> </span></span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/10/26/world/russia-ukraine-war-news" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">denies</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; "><span> </span>that it plans to blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam. Instead, it<span> </span></span><a href="https://nypost.com/2022/10/20/russia-planning-false-flag-attack-to-blow-up-kherson-dam/" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">accuses</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; "><span> </span>Russia of similar plans.</span></p>
<h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: var(--color-primary); font-family: var(--font_family_headings, var(--font_family_headings_preset, "SF Compact Display", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol")); font-size: 1.375em; font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0px 0.625em; position: relative;">Drones<div class="header-anchor-widget" id="§drones" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; height: 30.3px; left: -56px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 56px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; align-items: center; display: flex; height: 1.2em; left: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 40px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://wimroffel.substack.com/i/81967407/drones" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; align-items: center; border-radius: 50%; cursor: pointer; display: flex; height: 40px; justify-content: center; opacity: 0; width: 40px;"><svg class="header-anchor-widget-icon" fill="none" height="20" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path><path d="M14 11a5 5 0 0 0-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 0 0 7.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path></svg></div></div></div></h3><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">Bayraktak says they hope to have<span> </span></span><a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/turkeys-baykar-to-complete-drone-plant-in-ukraine-in-two-years/" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">a drone factory</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; "><span> </span>ready in Ukraine in two years. The contract for this was signed just before the start of the war in February, but has been delayed due to the war.<span> </span></span><em style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">“Ukraine figures prominently in Baykar's supply chain, especially with the new heavy-lifter drone Akinci and unmanned fighter jet Kizilelma, or Golden Apple, currently under development. Both use Ukrainian engines from Motor Sich and from Ivchenko-Progress.</em><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">”</span></p>
<h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: var(--color-primary); font-family: var(--font_family_headings, var(--font_family_headings_preset, "SF Compact Display", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol")); font-size: 1.375em; font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0px 0.625em; position: relative;">Kherson<div class="header-anchor-widget" id="§kherson" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; height: 30.3px; left: -56px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 56px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; align-items: center; display: flex; height: 1.2em; left: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 40px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://wimroffel.substack.com/i/81967407/kherson" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; align-items: center; border-radius: 50%; cursor: pointer; display: flex; height: 40px; justify-content: center; opacity: 0; width: 40px;"><svg class="header-anchor-widget-icon" fill="none" height="20" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path><path d="M14 11a5 5 0 0 0-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 0 0 7.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path></svg></div></div></div></h3><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">The evacuation of residents from Kherson has had an unexpected effect: the city has become more pro-Ukrainian. It turns out that pro-Russian residents are more likely to be evacuated than pro-Ukrainians and as a result, the latter now make up a larger proportion of the population.</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">This has already led to actions where some traders<span> </span></span><a href="https://aif.ru/politics/vlasti_hersonskoy_oblasti_predupredili_o_nakazanii_za_otkaz_prinimat_rubli?" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">refused</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; "><span> </span>to accept Russian rubles. The Russian government immediately intervened. Punishment for those who continue to do so is exile to Ukraine-controlled territory.</span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">This is not a new phenomenon. Ukraine suffers from a similar problem near the Donbass, where Russia is slowly advancing. There the pro-Ukrainian people leave and the pro-Russians stay.</p>
<h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: var(--color-primary); font-family: var(--font_family_headings, var(--font_family_headings_preset, "SF Compact Display", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol")); font-size: 1.375em; font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0px 0.625em; position: relative;">Mobilization<div class="header-anchor-widget" id="§mobilization" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; height: 30.3px; left: -56px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 56px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; align-items: center; display: flex; height: 1.2em; left: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 40px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://wimroffel.substack.com/i/81967407/mobilization" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; align-items: center; border-radius: 50%; cursor: pointer; display: flex; height: 40px; justify-content: center; opacity: 0; width: 40px;"><svg class="header-anchor-widget-icon" fill="none" height="20" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path><path d="M14 11a5 5 0 0 0-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 0 0 7.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path></svg></div></div></div></h3><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">On Friday, October 28, Defense<span> </span></span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/28/world/europe/russia-draft-war.html" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">Minister Shoigu said</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; "><span> </span>the mobilization was over and no more soldiers would be called up.</span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">Of the 300,000 called up, 82,000 have already been sent to Ukraine. Half of them have been involved in combat.</p>
<h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: var(--color-primary); font-family: var(--font_family_headings, var(--font_family_headings_preset, "SF Compact Display", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol")); font-size: 1.375em; font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0px 0.625em; position: relative;">LNG<div class="header-anchor-widget" id="§lng" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; height: 30.3px; left: -56px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 56px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; align-items: center; display: flex; height: 1.2em; left: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 40px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://wimroffel.substack.com/i/81967407/lng" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; align-items: center; border-radius: 50%; cursor: pointer; display: flex; height: 40px; justify-content: center; opacity: 0; width: 40px;"><svg class="header-anchor-widget-icon" fill="none" height="20" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path><path d="M14 11a5 5 0 0 0-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 0 0 7.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path></svg></div></div></div></h3><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">The European campaign to buy LNG seems a little too successful. About 10% of the world fleet of LNG tankers<span> </span></span><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/24/wave-of-lng-tankers-overwhelms-europe-and-hits-natural-gas-prices.html" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">hangs around European ports</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">. They cannot unload because much of the LNG storage is already full and the unloading capacity in the ports is also limited. Some may also be unwilling to unload as they consider the prices too low. They now form a kind of expensive mobile reserve.</span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">As a result, gas prices in Europe are falling again. However, the price for gas transport is being pushed up worldwide.</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">Meanwhile, high gas prices hit developing countries that had become dependent on LNG under Western pressure, such as<span> </span></span><a href="https://asiatimes.com/2021/03/switch-to-lng-threatens-renewable-energy-development-in-asia/" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">Bangla Desh</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">.</span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">Europe consumes more than 400 billion cubic meters of gas per year. The storage holds up to 107. In addition, there are limitations on the speed at which it can be inflated. All in all, it remains to be seen how the winter will turn out and shortages can certainly arise if the weather is bad.</p>
<h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: var(--color-primary); font-family: var(--font_family_headings, var(--font_family_headings_preset, "SF Compact Display", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol")); font-size: 1.375em; font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0px 0.625em; position: relative;">Nord Stream<div class="header-anchor-widget" id="§nord-stream" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; height: 30.3px; left: -56px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 56px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; align-items: center; display: flex; height: 1.2em; left: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 40px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://wimroffel.substack.com/i/81967407/nord-stream" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; align-items: center; border-radius: 50%; cursor: pointer; display: flex; height: 40px; justify-content: center; opacity: 0; width: 40px;"><svg class="header-anchor-widget-icon" fill="none" height="20" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path><path d="M14 11a5 5 0 0 0-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 0 0 7.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path></svg></div></div></div></h3><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">Previously, Putin had accused "</span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-putin-nordstream-idAFS8N2Z80FZ" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">Anglo-Saxons</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">" of being responsible for the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines. Now Defense Minister Shoigu has made that concrete by saying that the<span> </span></span><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/29/russia-says-uk-navy-blew-up-nord-stream-london-denies-claim" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">British</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; "><span> </span>are responsible.</span></p>
<h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: var(--color-primary); font-family: var(--font_family_headings, var(--font_family_headings_preset, "SF Compact Display", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol")); font-size: 1.375em; font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0px 0.625em; position: relative;">Valdai speech<div class="header-anchor-widget" id="§valdai-speech" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; height: 30.3px; left: -56px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 56px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; align-items: center; display: flex; height: 1.2em; left: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 40px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://wimroffel.substack.com/i/81967407/valdai-speech" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; align-items: center; border-radius: 50%; cursor: pointer; display: flex; height: 40px; justify-content: center; opacity: 0; width: 40px;"><svg class="header-anchor-widget-icon" fill="none" height="20" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path><path d="M14 11a5 5 0 0 0-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 0 0 7.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path></svg></div></div></div></h3><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; ">Putin gave one of his major annual speeches in Valdai. On the<span> </span></span><a href="http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69695" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">Kremlin website</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; "><span> </span>you can read the speech and the subsequent question and answer session and see the speech dubbed.</span></p></div></div></div>Wim Roffelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05950733237377413606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17149992.post-5698444930947976982022-11-05T17:45:00.003+01:002022-11-05T17:45:12.761+01:00War in Ukraine 16-22 October<p> </p><div class="post-header" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; word-spacing: 0px;"><h1 class="post-title unpublished" style="font-size: var(--font-size-32); font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: var(--line-height-36); margin: 0px;"></h1><h3 class="subtitle" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: var(--print_secondary, var(--color-secondary)); font-family: var(--font_family_headings, var(--font_family_headings_preset, "SF Compact Display", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol")); font-size: var(--font-size-18); font-weight: 400; line-height: var(--line-height-24); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: var(--size-12);">News overview</h3></div><div class="visibility-check" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; word-spacing: 0px;"><br /></div><div style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; word-spacing: 0px;"><div class="available-content" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); display: flex;"><div class="body markup" dir="auto" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); margin-bottom: var(--size-16); width: 728px; word-break: break-word;">
<h3 style="font-size: 1.375em; font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: 1.16em; margin: 0px 0px 0.625em; position: relative;">Frontlines<div id="§frontlines">
<div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); align-items: center; display: flex; height: 1.2em; left: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 40px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://wimroffel.substack.com/i/80536260/frontlines" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); align-items: center; border-radius: 50%; cursor: pointer; display: flex; height: 40px; justify-content: center; opacity: 0; width: 40px;"><svg class="header-anchor-widget-icon" fill="none" height="20" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path><path d="M14 11a5 5 0 0 0-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 0 0 7.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path></svg></div></div></div></h3>
<p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">The front lines have changed little in the past week. One of Surovikin's qualities, which was often mentioned when he was appointed, was that in Syria he had succeeded in making the various branches of the armed forces - including the air force - work well together. It seems that this policy has also led to an improvement in the Russian position in Ukraine. There was fierce fighting everywhere.</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"> In the northeast, Russia appears to have stabilized the situation. It has even regained some ground near Kupyansk. Ukraine continues to launch attacks in hopes of forcing a breakthrough towards Luhansk. The Ukrainian attacks mainly take place further south, near Tern and towards Kreminna.</p>
<p>Near Soledar and Bakhmut, the Russian army is still making small conquests. At this rate, it could be months before they conquer these cities. Ukraine is gathering a large group of soldiers behind the front lines for a counter-offensive.</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">Near Kherson, Ukraine continues to attack. They are not very successful at the moment. But in the past we have seen many times that the Russian army, after repelling attacks on a number of occasions, still felt compelled to withdraw.</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">On October 21 and 22, the Russian Air Force carried out a large number of attacks on Ukrainian electricity supplies.</p><h3 style="font-size: 1.375em; font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0px 0.625em; position: relative;">Martial law<div id="§martial-law"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); align-items: center; display: flex; height: 1.2em; left: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 40px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://wimroffel.substack.com/i/80536260/martial-law" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); align-items: center; border-radius: 50%; cursor: pointer; display: flex; height: 40px; justify-content: center; opacity: 0; width: 40px;"><svg class="header-anchor-widget-icon" fill="none" height="20" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path><path d="M14 11a5 5 0 0 0-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 0 0 7.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path></svg></div></div></div></h3><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);">Putin declared<span> </span></span><a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukraine-war/putin-introduces-martial-law-in-donetsk-kherson-luhansk-zaporizhzhia-regions/2715479" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">martial law</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);"><span> </span>in the four annexed regions on October 19. Less far-reaching measures were announced for Crimea and neighboring Russian provinces. It seems primarily an attempt to streamline and legalize the current situation. Kherson's evacuation may have been the deciding factor. This now has a legal basis and can also be enforced.</span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);">At least as interesting is the creation of a<span> </span></span><a href="https://vz.ru/politics/2022/10/19/1182904.html" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">Special Coordination Council</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);"><span> </span>(SCC), which will be headed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. The SCC will also include representatives from the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of the Interior, the Ministry of Emergency Situations, the Russian Guard, the FSB, the Foreign Intelligence Service, the Chief Directorate for Special Programs of the President, other federal agencies and the State Council. The task of the council is to meet the needs that arise during the execution of a special operation. This applies to the supply and repair of weapons, medical and sanitation services, repair and construction work and logistics.</span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);"> </span>It seems that this council provides General Surovikin with a platform where he can directly request cooperation from all concerned.</p><h3 style="font-size: 1.375em; font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0px 0.625em; position: relative;">Belarus<div id="§belarus"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); align-items: center; display: flex; height: 1.2em; left: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 40px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://wimroffel.substack.com/i/80536260/belarus" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); align-items: center; border-radius: 50%; cursor: pointer; display: flex; height: 40px; justify-content: center; opacity: 0; width: 40px;"><svg class="header-anchor-widget-icon" fill="none" height="20" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path><path d="M14 11a5 5 0 0 0-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 0 0 7.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path></svg></div></div></div></h3><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);">Belarus is now also digging trenches along its border with Ukraine. Russia is going to help Belarus set up a border security unit and send 9,000 troops to do so. Belarus itself has banned its soldiers from traveling abroad (with the exception of Russia). Lukashenko accuses NATO of exacerbating tensions on the country's western border. In addition, in Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine, terrorists are said to be preparing to carry out attacks in Belarus. The<span> </span></span><a href="https://t.me/intelslava/39306" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">first arrests</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);"><span> </span>of Ukraine fighters who allegedly planned attacks have already been reported.</span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);"> </span>A major upgrade of Belarus' arsenal is also underway. Tanks and armored vehicles are transported en masse by rail to Russian factories to be modernized. Then they go back.</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);">There is much speculation as to what the plan is here. Some think that Russia wants to invade Ukraine again from Belarus. The most likely scenario would then be an attack west of Kiev with the aim of stopping the arms supply. Others claim Belarus is under heavy pressure to join the war on Russia's side. According to opinion polls, an overwhelming majority of the Belarussian population is not in favor of this. All in all,<span> </span></span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/10/21/world/russia-ukraine-war-news?campaign_id=249&emc=edit_ruwb_20221021&instance_id=75326&nl=russia-ukraine-war-briefing&regi_id=65143923&segment_id=110716&te=1&user_id=c058f131362900b35d9979ed452cf8a7#are-the-new-russian-forces-in-belarus-a-feint-or-preparation-for-a-new-push-into-ukraine" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">it doesn't look like</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);"><span> </span>this will become an active front anytime soon. However, Russia is shelling Ukraine from Belarusian territory.</span></p><h3 style="font-size: 1.375em; font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0px 0.625em; position: relative;">Gas<div id="§gas"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); align-items: center; display: flex; height: 1.2em; left: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 40px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://wimroffel.substack.com/i/80536260/gas" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); align-items: center; border-radius: 50%; cursor: pointer; display: flex; height: 40px; justify-content: center; opacity: 0; width: 40px;"><svg class="header-anchor-widget-icon" fill="none" height="20" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path><path d="M14 11a5 5 0 0 0-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 0 0 7.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path></svg></div></div></div></h3><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);">China has<span> </span></span><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/china-halts-lng-sales-to-foreign-buyers-to-ensure-own-supply" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">banned</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);"><span> </span>its state-owned companies from selling gas abroad. Because it gets extra Russian gas, China was able to export some to Europe. Apparently, China expects major shortages - and therefore high prices - on the world market this winter and wants to protect its own citizens.</span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);"> </span>Russia and the Nordstream company are is not the only parties that are not allowed to see the results of the Swedish investigation into the sabotage of Nord Stream 2. Germany and Denmark are not allowed access either. This only strengthens the impression that this was an American operation and evidence is hidden.</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"> <span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);">The Swedish magazine<span> </span></span><a href="https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/forsta-bilderna-fran-sprangda-gasroret-pa-ostersjons-botten/" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">Expressen</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);"><span> </span>has published pictures of the damage to the pipeline (the article is partly behind a paywall; for more pictures see<span> </span></span><a href="https://news.mail.ru/incident/53519325/" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">here</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);"><span> </span>and<span> </span></span><a href="https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1582260856426930176" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">here</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);">). There is also a<span> </span></span><a href="https://twitter.com/GuyReuters/status/1582292909667516418" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">video</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);">.</span></p><h3 style="font-size: 1.375em; font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0px 0.625em; position: relative;">Drones<div id="§drones"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); align-items: center; display: flex; height: 1.2em; left: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 40px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://wimroffel.substack.com/i/80536260/drones" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); align-items: center; border-radius: 50%; cursor: pointer; display: flex; height: 40px; justify-content: center; opacity: 0; width: 40px;"><svg class="header-anchor-widget-icon" fill="none" height="20" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path><path d="M14 11a5 5 0 0 0-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 0 0 7.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path></svg></div></div></div></h3><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);">Russia's imports of Iranian weapons are slowly expanding. Besides the<span> </span></span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HESA_Shahed_136" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">Geran-2<span> </span></a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);">(= Shahed-136; geran is Russian for geranium) they now also use the Geran-1 (Shahed-131). It is somewhat smaller (150 instead of 200 kilos). The Geran-2 can carry an explosive of 50 kilos. The<span> </span></span><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/10/16/iran-russia-missiles-ukraine/" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">Washington Post</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);"><span> </span>reported that Iran also plans to provide heavier drones (Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar) and<span> </span></span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/exclusive-iran-agrees-ship-missiles-more-drones-russia-defying-west-sources-2022-10-18/" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">missiles</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);"><span> </span>(Aresh 2).</span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);"> </span>It is unclear what NATO intends to do against these drones. They talk about jamming, but these drones are pre-programmed and lose contact with the home base along the way. They call it fire and forget. In the countryside it is often best to just shoot the drones. In the cities it is more difficult. You often hit other things as well. And if you hit such a drone and it crashes in a residential area, that's not such a success either. The drones are so cheap that Russia usually sends several at the same time via different routes to the same target.</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"> The Geran-2 has a weak engine and the maximum speed is about 180 km per hour. This has the advantage that the engine generates little heat. Many air defenses look for heat sources and therefore miss the drone.</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"> <span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);">Both the Geran-2 and the Turkish<span> </span></span><a href="https://armedforces.eu/air_forces/drone/Bayraktar_TB2" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">Bayraktar</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);"><span> </span>make a sound like a moped. But the Geran-2 is a much cheaper drone (less than $20,000 vs. $5 million for a Bayraktar) that's only suitable as a suicide drone. The Bayraktar can be piloted from a distance and is therefore much more suitable for reconnaissance and bombing. The Bayraktar is larger (500 kg) and can carry more. However, the range is much smaller (150 km vs 2000 for the Geran-2). The Geran-2 is also much newer: it dates from last year while the Bayraktar has been in use since 2014. Iran supplies Russia with another drone that is more similar to the Bayraktar: the<span> </span></span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/18/us/politics/iran-drones-russia-ukraine.html" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">Mohajer-6</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);">.</span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);"> Much about the production and delivery of the Geran-2 is unclear. Some Telegram posts claim that it is built in Russia and not imported. According to the British MI-6, Russia is currently making<span> </span></span><a href="https://t.me/rezident_ua/14750" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">500 drones per month</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);">. There are no images showing what is inside the Iranian planes that regularly fly to Moscow. Exporting Iranian weapons to Russia would be a violation of sanctions against Iran (SC Resolution 2231).</span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);">Good ideas are copied. Ukraine is working on a<span> </span></span><a href="https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/ukraine_is_developing_a_long_range_kamikaze_drone_the_work_is_almost_complete-4564.html" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">similar drone</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);"><span> </span>to the Geran-2. Russia is said to be refining the design.</span></p><h3 style="font-size: 1.375em; font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0px 0.625em; position: relative;">Grain<div id="§grain"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); align-items: center; display: flex; height: 1.2em; left: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 40px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://wimroffel.substack.com/i/80536260/grain" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); align-items: center; border-radius: 50%; cursor: pointer; display: flex; height: 40px; justify-content: center; opacity: 0; width: 40px;"><svg class="header-anchor-widget-icon" fill="none" height="20" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path><path d="M14 11a5 5 0 0 0-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 0 0 7.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path></svg></div></div></div></h3><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);">The<span> </span></span><a href="https://vz.ru/politics/2022/10/19/1182759.html" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">grain agreement</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);"><span> </span>that enables Ukrainian exports from Odessa is coming under pressure. The Russians have previously complained that the propaganda about export to developing countries has not come to fruition. The vast majority of Ukrainian grain goes to Europe. In addition, as a counter-concession, it had been agreed that Europe would lift its sanctions that hinder the export of Russian grain and fertilizer (including a ban on insurance of transport). But that still hasn't happened. The grain agreement expires in November. It will probably not be extended.</span></p><h3 style="font-size: 1.375em; font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0px 0.625em; position: relative;">Weapons<div id="§weapons"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); align-items: center; display: flex; height: 1.2em; left: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 40px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://wimroffel.substack.com/i/80536260/weapons" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); align-items: center; border-radius: 50%; cursor: pointer; display: flex; height: 40px; justify-content: center; opacity: 0; width: 40px;"><svg class="header-anchor-widget-icon" fill="none" height="20" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path><path d="M14 11a5 5 0 0 0-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 0 0 7.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path></svg></div></div></div></h3><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">Now that the former Warsaw Pact countries have run out of Soviet weapons, they are looking elsewhere in the world. Pakistan and Uganda are among those mentioned.</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">There are increasingly shortages of Western weapons. Besides the Javelin anti-tank weapons and the Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, there is also a shortage of M777 howitzers and ammunition for them.</p><h3 style="font-size: 1.375em; font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0px 0.625em; position: relative;">Attack<div id="§attack"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); align-items: center; display: flex; height: 1.2em; left: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 40px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://wimroffel.substack.com/i/80536260/attack" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); align-items: center; border-radius: 50%; cursor: pointer; display: flex; height: 40px; justify-content: center; opacity: 0; width: 40px;"><svg class="header-anchor-widget-icon" fill="none" height="20" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path><path d="M14 11a5 5 0 0 0-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 0 0 7.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path></svg></div></div></div></h3><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);">Two Tajiks who volunteered for the Russian army<span> </span></span><a href="https://minifeednews.com/latest-news/volunteers-from-tajikistan-opened-shooting-at-the-training-camp-in-belgorod/22681/" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">killed</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);"><span> </span>11 people at a training camp in Belgorod. They were also shot and killed themselves. The Russian Defense Ministry spoke of a terrorist attack, but independent Russian media claimed that the shooting followed a conflict between Islamic soldiers - who didn’t want to fight - with their officer, who spoke of a "holy war". ”, and thereafter called Allah “a coward.” .</span></p><h3 style="font-size: 1.375em; font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0px 0.625em; position: relative;">Kherson<div id="§kherson"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); align-items: center; display: flex; height: 1.2em; left: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 40px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://wimroffel.substack.com/i/80536260/kherson" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); align-items: center; border-radius: 50%; cursor: pointer; display: flex; height: 40px; justify-content: center; opacity: 0; width: 40px;"><svg class="header-anchor-widget-icon" fill="none" height="20" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path><path d="M14 11a5 5 0 0 0-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 0 0 7.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path></svg></div></div></div></h3><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">Russia has advised the people of the city of Kherson to leave the city. There are various explanations for this evacuation.</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"> Ukraine is said to have gathered some 60,000 men to attack Russian troops west of the Dnieper River. These troops depend for supplies on a few bridges that are regularly shelled by Ukraine and thus appear vulnerable. Ukraine's Western allies are said to have ordered the country to capture Kherson as soon as possible. Heavy fighting is therefore to be expected and it is expected that the city will also be frequently shelled. On 8 November there are elections in the US and Biden would like to show some result.</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);">In addition, there are fears that Ukraine will<span> </span></span><a href="https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/10/sadly-only-in-russian.html" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">blow up the dams upstream</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);"><span> </span>in the river. That would cause a tidal wave that could severely affect the city - which is located on the river.</span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);">Ukraine is trying to turn this argument around by<span> </span></span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/21/world/europe/zelensky-putin-russia-ukraine-dam.html?" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">claiming</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);"><span> </span>that it is Russia that wants to blow up the dam in a false flag attack. That should cover a withdrawal and make it more difficult for Ukraine to cross the river and advance further. This is not credible: Blowing up the dam would make a withdrawal more difficult and undermine the Russian defenses. In addition, the left bank to which the Russians would retreat is lower than the right bank. So they would be most affected by it themselves.</span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);"> </span>Another motive are the sabotage and reconnaissance groups (DRGs) of the Ukrainian army. When they enter the city they will no longer be able to hide among and behind the population. People are allowed to stay if they really want to, but will then be extra monitored to ensure that they do not pass on any information to the Ukrainian army.</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">It is also possible that the Russian army is preparing for urban warfare. As we have seen in Mariupol and other cities, cities are very well defensible. Unfortunately, the result is great destruction. It is even a possibility that Russia will provide for withdrawal and reconquest later and that it wants to prevent Ukraine from using the presence of a civilian population to hide behind.</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"> <span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);">Will Russia withdraw from the west bank of the river? The<span> </span></span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/22/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-strikes.html" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); color: var(--color-primary); text-decoration: underline;">NY Times reports</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5);"><span> </span>that according to the Ukrainians Russia is withdrawing some units and equipment. But the danger of blowing up the dam is real and it is expected that Russia will take precautions. That doesn't mean it plans to give up the area. And if it wants to give up the area, it will probably strive to make the Ukrainian army pay a heavy price for the conquest - as it did in the Kharkov offensive.</span></p></div></div></div>Wim Roffelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05950733237377413606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17149992.post-17579998670818067472022-09-05T08:42:00.004+02:002022-09-05T08:42:59.299+02:00China's real estate dilemmaChina's real estate sector is <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/chinese-real-estate-collapse-throws-economy-into-crisis">becoming a mess</a>. Building companies are going broke, prices are falling and people have started a mortgage boycot on unfinished projects. Some people are already predicting a similar mess as in Japan that after a real estate boom had two "lost decades" without economic growth.
It depends on how the Chinese government reacts.
In an economic crisis the cause is always some unbalance. Good crisis management solves that unbalance without creating other unbalances. It was here that Japan went wrong. Rather than solving the problem it froze the situation in order to unfreeze it very gradually. The result was a lot of zombie companies that were technically broke yet continued functioning. Of course people were very cautious to deal with such companies: if you gave them money - for example as a prepayment - you were never sure if and when you might get your money back or the things you paid for. Even worse, you weren't even sure which companies were zombies so you had to be always careful. It is not hard to understand that such a situation is bad for economic growth.
A slightly better reaction could be seen in the reaction to the financial crisis of 2008 in the US and Europe. In this case it was decided to invest lots of government money so that almost no one had to go broke. The fear was that one bankruptcy would result in a chain reaction that caused many other bankruptcies. The problem of this approach was that the underlying problems weren't addressed. When the next bubble bursts there will still be a too closely connected financial sector where one bankruptcy can generate many more. Not to mention that a lot of taxpayer money went to subsidize the financial sector's fat cats. But the main goal was achieved: the crisis was solved very quickly.
China has announced that it will prioritize protecting homeowners over developers. That is a good beginning. Japan's big problem was that it didn't have the courage to confront well connected businessmen with huge losses or even bankruptcy. But, as the article mentions, much depends on what the regional authorities will do. It is at that level that ties between government officials and developpers are the strongest.
That is not the only problem to solve. Houses under construction need to be finished. Housing prices should remain low enough that enough people can afford one but when they sink too much too many people end with mortgages that are higher than the value of the house. And the government will need to find another engine for the economy once housing can no longer serve that role.
Let's see whether Xi can handle this challenge.Wim Roffelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05950733237377413606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17149992.post-81477944365139041052022-05-09T14:19:00.095+02:002024-02-13T20:30:52.627+01:00Sources on the Ukraine War<p>Here is my collection of sources on the Ukraine War:</p>
<p><b>English language Blogs</b><br>
<a href="https://www.moonofalabama.org/">Moon of Alabama</a><br>
<!--a href="http://thesaker.is/">The Saker</a><br-->
<a href="https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/">Reminiscence of the Future...</a>Andrei Martyanov<br>
<a href="https://southfront.org/">Southfront</a><br>
<a href="https://readingjunkie.com/">Ian Kummer</a><br>
<a href="https://bigserge.substack.com/">Big Serge</a> General military affairs<br>
<a href="https://imetatronink.substack.com/">Willem Schryver</a> General military affairs<br>
<a href="https://odysee.com/@LandDestroyer:8">New Atlas</a> Brian Berletic aka Tony Cartalucci.<br>
<a href="https://edwardslavsquat.substack.com/">Edward Slavsquat</a><br>
<a href="https://askeptic.substack.com/">Reports from Ukraine</a> Daily overview of Telegram and Twitter posts and some videos<br>
<a href="https://gilbertdoctorow.com/">Gilbert Doctorow</a><br>
<a href="http://johnhelmer.org/">John Helmer</a><br>
<a href="https://scheerpost.com/">Scheerpost</a><br>
<a href="https://unherd.com/author/edward-luttwak/">Edward Luttwak</a><br>
<a href="https://sonar21.com/">Larry Johnson</a><br> <!--https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/author/larryj/-->
<a href="http://futuredefensevisions.blogspot.com/">Douglas MacGregor</a>
<a href="https://www.donbass-insider.com/">Donbass Insider</a><br>
<a href="https://turcopolier.com/">Turcopolier</a> pro-Ukrainian<br>
<a href="https://kyivindependent.com/">Kyiv Independent</a><br>
<a href="https://english.nv.ua/">New Voice of Ukraine</a><br>
<a href="https://roloslavskiy.substack.com/">Slavland</a><br>
<a href="https://korybko.substack.com/">Andrew Korybko</a><br>
<a href="https://gpovanman.wordpress.com/">GPO Van Man</a><br>
<a href="https://robcampbell.substack.com/">Rob Campbell - Ukraine Weekly Update</a><br>
<a href="https://www.stalkerzone.org/">Stalkerzone</a> The home page contains only 2017 articles. On the sidebar of each article are links to recent articles.<br>
<a href="https://awfulavalanche.wordpress.com/">Awful Avalanche</a><br>
<a href="https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x">Tom Cooper</a> pro-Ukrainian sitrep<br>
<a href="https://oliverboydbarrett.substack.com/">Empire, Communication and NATO Wars</a> Oliver Boyd-Barrett<br>
<a href="https://simplicius76.substack.com/">Simplicius The Thinker</a><br>
<a href="https://banderalobby.substack.com/">Bandera Lobby</a><br>
<a href="https://swentr.site/">rt.com</a> on alternative not blocked url<br>
<a href="https://bmanalysis.substack.com/">Black Mountain Analysis</a><br>
<a href="https://aurelien2022.substack.com/">Aurelien</a><br>
<a href="https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/">Events in Ukraine</a><br>
<a href="https://www.thepostil.substack.com/">Postil</a><br>
<a href="https://russialist.org/">Johnson's Russia List</a><br>
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCdeMVChrumySxV9N1w0Au-w">The Duran</a><br>
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUnc496-PPmFZVKlYxUnToA">Military Summary</a> Daily update with lots of maps<br>
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/c/DefensePoliticsAsia/videos">Defense Policics Asia</a> Daily update with lots of maps<br>
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZLmtPwYbS2M">Russell Bentley</a> American living in Donetsk<br>
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/@DenysDavydov">Denys Davydov</a> pro-Ukrainian<br>
<p><b>Other interesting Sites</b><br>
<a href="https://www.globalresearch.ca/">Global Research</a><br>
<a href="https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/">Naked Capitalism</a><br>
<a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/">Zero Hedge</a><br>
<a href="https://anti-empire.com/">Anti-empire</a><br>
<a href="http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/">Information Clearing House</a><br>
</p>
<p>
<p><b>Russian language Blogs</b><br>
<a href="https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/">Colonel Cassad</a><br>
<a href="https://greatwarchannel.medium.com/">Great War Channel</a><br>
<a href="https://nvo.ng.ru/">NGO</a><br>
<a href="https://vk.com/v.alksnis?w=wall701885602_54865%2Fall">Alksnis</a><br>
</p>
<p>
<p><b>Other language Blogs</b><br>
<a href="http://russiepolitics.blogspot.com/">Russie Politics</a> in French<br>
</p>
<p>
<b>Interesting Russian language sites</b><br>
<a href="https://readovka.news/">Readovka</a><br>
<a href="https://vz.ru/">Vzglyad</a><br>
<a href="https://vpoanalytics.com/">VPO Analytics</a><br>
<a href="https://www.kommersant.ru/">Kommersant</a><br>
<a href="https://meduza.io/">Meduza</a> Russian opposition<br>
<a href="https://novayagazetaeu.substack.com/p/--29c?s=w">Novaya</a> <a href="https://novayagazeta.eu/">Gazeta</a> Russian opposition<br>
</p>
<p>
<b>Interesting English language websites</b><br>
<a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/">Institute for the Study of War</a> Important source of maps for the Western press. Run by neocons.<br>
<a href="https://liveuamap.com/">LiveUAMap</a> Interactieve kaart<br>
</p><a href="https://www.thefivecoatconsultinggroup.com/the-coronavirus-crisis/">TFCG</a> Wekelijkse Sitreps met uitgebreide kaarten<br>
<p>
<b>Articles</b><br>
<a href="https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/modern-day-censorship/the-military-situation-in-the-ukraine-as-seen-by-an-ex-member-of-the-swiss-strategic-intelligence/">The military situation in Ukraine, as seen by an ex-member of the Swiss strategic intelligence</a> by <a href="https://www.thepostil.com/our-interview-with-jacques-baud/">Jacques</a> Baud (18 april 2022)<br>
</p>
<p>
Thanks to censorship and spambots Twitter is overwhelmingly pro-Ukraine. In a reaction most pro-Russian voices can be found on Telegram. The pro-Ukrainian voices in Telegram lack the depth of their pro-Russian colleagues: while every battle field win or loss(!) is immediately discussed on the pro-Russian sites the pro-Ukrainian restrict themselves mostly to high level politics.
<p>
<b>Telegram channels in the English language</b><br>
<a href="https://t.me/mod_russia_en/">Russian Ministry of Defense</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/intelslava">Intel Slava Z</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/asbmil">ASB Military News</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/Slavyangrad">Slavyangrad - Gleb Bazov</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/InfoDefenseEn">InfoDefense</a> by Yuri Podoliaka<br>
<a href="https://t.me/ukr_leaks_eng">Ukr Leaks</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/levigodman">Levi Godman</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/right2dissent">Right2Dissent</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/UkraineNaziWatch">UkrNaziWatch</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/ZradaXXII">Zrada XII</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/DonbassDevushka">Donbass Girl</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses">Ukraine Human Rights Abuses</a>
<a href="https://t.me/ConflictChronicles">Conflict Chronicals</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/dpr_mfa">DPR mfa</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/ScottRitter">Scott Ritter</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday">Patrick Lancaster</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/grahamwphillips">Graham Phillips</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/RWApodcast">Russians with Attitude</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/ukrainenowenglish/">Ukraine Now</a> pro-Ukraine<br>
<a href="https://t.me/pravdaGerashchenko_en">Anton Gerashchenko</a> pro-Ukraine<br>
<a href="https://t.me/BellumActaNews">Bellum Acta News</a> pro-Ukraine<br>
<a href="https://t.me/fortresskyiv">Fortress Kyiv</a> pro-Ukraine<br>
</p>
<p>
<b>Telegram channels in the Russian language</b><br>
<a href="https://t.me/boris_rozhin/">Boris Rozhin</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/polkovnik_hodarenok">Polkovnik Hodarenok</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/rybar">Rybar</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/anna_news">Anna News</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/s/strelkovii">Strelkov</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/parbut">Parbut</a> Parlament Z knopkoy<br>
<a href="https://t.me/otryadkovpaka">Otryad Kovpaka</a> Detachment Kovpak<br>
<a href="https://t.me/rezident_ua">Rezident</a> Inside gossip from the Zelensky administration<br>
<a href="https://t.me/MediaKiller2021">Media Killer</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/krioggen">Krioggen</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/Sladkov_plus">Sladkov Plus</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/WarDonbass">War Donbass</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/XU_kraine">X-UA Photo War</a> War pictures<br>
<a href="https://t.me/epoddubny/10744">Poddubny</a> war reporter for VGTRK in Ukraine<br>
<a href="https://t.me/legitimniy">Legitimniy</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/ZeRada1">Ze Rada</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/colonel_cassad">Colonel Cassad</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/RVvoenkor">Operation Z: Military commissars of the Russian Spring</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/mod_russia">Russian Ministry of Defense</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/Army_Russia">Correspondent's Notes</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/zola_of_renovation">Vladislav Ugol'nyy</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/russtrat">Russtrat</a><br>
<a href="https://t.me/Elena Panina">Ev Panina</a> directeur Russtrat<br>
</p>
<b>Telegram channels in the Ukrainian language</b><br>
<a href="https://t.me/MaksymZhorin">Zhorin from Azov</a> <br>
<a href="https://t.me/u_now">Ukraine Now</a><br>
</p>
<p>
<b>Twitter channels in the English language</b><br>
<a href="https://twitter.com/PLnewstoday">Patrick Lancaster</a><br>
<a href="https://twitter.com/UkrWarReport">UKR War Report</a><br>
<a href="https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet">MilitaryLand.Net</a><br>
<a href="https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik">Erik Zimerman</a><br>
<a href="https://twitter.com/sentdefender">OSINTDefender</a><br>
<a href="https://twitter.com/visegrad24/">Visegrad24</a><br>
<a href="https://twitter.com/Ukraine66251776">UkraineNews</a> pro-Russian<br>
<a href="https://twitter.com/AggregateOsint">OSINT Aggregator</a><br>
<a href="https://twitter.com/GeromanAT">Geroman</a><br>
<a href="https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke">Julian Roepcke</a><br>
<a href="https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk">Olga Tokarriuk</a><br>
<a href="https://twitter.com/o_ostapchuk">Oksana Ostapchuk</a><br>
<a href="https://twitter.com/ralee85">Rob Lee</a><br>
<a href="https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1">AZ Military</a><br>
</p>
<p>
<b>Anti-fake</b><br>
<a href="https://waronfakes.com/">War on Fakes</a> the Russian view<br>
<a href="https://www.stopfake.org/en/main/">StopFake</a> the Ukrainian view<br>
</p>
<p>Telegram offers the option to translate languages. See <a href="https://www.guidingtech.com/how-to-translate-messages-in-telegram/">here</a> for a manual on how to set that up.</p>
<p>Youtube offers some option for translation too. You should first enable subtitles. That will produce subtitles in the language that is spoken. Then you can go in the Youtube settings and select your language and automatic translation will take place. This is a rather buggy process: speech recognition is far from perfect. And sometimes you see for a long time no text and then suddenly ten lines will be displayed at once.</p>
<p/>
<p>
<b>Telegram channels in other languages</b><br>
<a href="https://t.me/berichten_uit_Donbass">Berichten uit Donbass</a> Dutch<br>
<a href="https://t.me/neuesausrussland">Neues aus Rusland</a> Alina Lipp - German<br>
</p>
<p>
<b>Not Ukraine related</b><br>
<a href="https://www.informationclearinghouse.info/">Information Clearing House</a><br>
<a href="https://www.globalresearch.ca/">Global Research</a><br>
<a href="https://home.solari.com/">Solari Report</a><br>
<a href="https://deblauwetijger.com/">De Blauwe Tijger</a> Dutch<br>
<a href="https://thegrayzone.com/">The Gray Zone</a><br>
<a href="https://www.aaronmate.net/">Aaron Mate</a><br>
<a href="https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/">Naked Capitalism</a><br>
<a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/">Zero Hedge</a><br>
<a href="https://www.mintpressnews.com/">MintPress News</a><br>
<a href="https://theintercept.com/">The Intercept</a><br>
<a href="https://caityjohnstone.medium.com/">Cathy Johnstone</a><br>
</p>
<p>
<b>Translated town names</b><br>
Machines translation has as a disadvantage that often town names are translated too. Here a list to translate them back.<br>
Raisins = Izyum<br>
Contested/Disputed = Spornoye/Spornogo<br>
Experienced = Opytnym<br>
Experimental = Opytnom<br>
Clock Yar = Chasov Yar<br>
Sands = Pesi<br>
Red Liman = Krasny Liman<br>
Red Mountain = Krasnaya Gora<br>
Berry = Jagodnoye<br>
<p>
<b>Town names that are very different between Russian and Ukrainian</b><br>
Artemovsk/Artyomovsk = Bakhmut<br>
Ugledar = Vugledar<br>
Dzerzhinsk = Toretsk<br>
Krasnoe = Ivanovskoye<br>
Wim Roffelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05950733237377413606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17149992.post-85406589126938992402021-02-03T15:38:00.003+01:002021-02-03T15:41:08.403+01:00Randomized Controlled Trials and Covid-19<p> Usually drug trial are <a href="https://www.cancer.org/treatment/treatments-and-side-effects/clinical-trials/what-you-need-to-know/phases-of-clinical-trials.html">divided in four phases</a>: <br /></p><p> - (optional: phase 0): initial studies in animals and low doses for humans<br /></p><p> - phase 1: basic exploration. How does the medicine work? Is it safe? What dose is optimal? <br /></p><p> - phase 2: small scale test (25-100 patiënts): does it work?</p><p> - phase 3: in a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randomized_controlled_trial ">Randomized Controlled Trial</a> the medicine is compared to placebos or existing products.<br /></p><p>With the corona epidemic only phase 3 studies are done. The excuse is that we are in an emergency and that speed is essential. </p><p>Sounds reasonable. Problem is that even if it results in a workable solution it may not be the optimal solution. We saw that illustrated when AstraZenica accidentally found that giving half a dose in the first round worked better. It may very well be that doses for other vaccines are far from optimal too. And although the claims of 90+% effectiveness for some vaccines may seem to leave little room for improvement both their need for a second dosage and their considerable side effects suggest otherwise.</p><p>The New York Times published an article "<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/30/health/covid-drugs-antivirals.html">How the Search for Covid-19 Treatments Faltered While Vaccines Sped Ahead</a>". According to the article:</p><p><i>The government poured $18.5 billion into vaccines, a strategy that resulted in at least five effective products at record-shattering speed. But its investment in drugs was far smaller, about $8.2 billion, most of which went to just a few candidates, such as monoclonal antibodies. Studies of other drugs were poorly organized.</i><br /></p><p>But even given the 8 billion dollar expenditure, the results are very meager. Seeing how promising treatments like HCQ and Ivermectin are maltreated one has to wonder whether other motives play a role. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. <a href="https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/new-york-times-explains-lack-covid-treatments/">suggests</a> that the interests of the vaccine producers play a role. If there is a medicine against Covid-19 it would no longer be possible to approve the vaccines according to the emergency rules.</p><p>What also plays a role that - given the absence of independent government institutes (many government paid experts have strong ties with the pharmaceutical industry) - it is hard to get the high volume research that would take away all doubts.<br /></p><p><br /></p>Wim Roffelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05950733237377413606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17149992.post-31235520338159171772021-01-28T17:40:00.034+01:002021-01-28T23:38:02.592+01:00The British variant of the corona virus: a sidestep?<p>There is a lot of noise about the B1.1.7 variant of the corona virus. This new "British" variant is claimed to be more contagious and more deadly. However, the evidence is mixed.</p><p>It started a few months ago when in most of Britain the number of infections was falling fast. There was one place that showed the opposite trend. Then some people noticed a new variety of the virus that included a mutation on the spike. A laboratory study that suggested that this variant is more contagious closed the deal. The hype about the British variant was born.<br /></p><p>This evidence for a new dangerous variant is rather thin. There could have been other explanations for the increase in infections in this one place. Maybe they just had some superspreader event, like a big wedding or funeral or a bunch of youth partying. <br /></p><p>England has nowadays a new wave of corona infections. But the great majority of those cases have the "normal" variety of the virus and it is usual assumed that lots of socializing around Christmas was the main cause and not the new variant.</p><p>Yet the new version is becoming more common. The question whether it is a second epidemic - as some publications suggest - or that it is actually replacing the old variant. My impression is the latter.</p><p>There are different models of how a flue epidemic works. And despite that corona is a more serious disease than the average flue my feeling is that such a model applies here too:</p><p>Every day we encounter some viruses. If it is a small quantity our immune system will deal with them. If there are too much we will get sick. It is well established that people will get more sick when they got a heavier dose of virus. The big question is whether when we meet a small dose that doesn't make us sick our immune system will build some resistance. My feeling is that it does. That would also explain why flue epidemics tend to disappear after one or two years. </p><p>Already this summer we saw reports that corona seemed to have become less deadly. This showed that we were building up some immunity. This situation favors any variation that is just different enough to at least partially evade this immunity. Reports from Moderna that antibodies built by their vaccine were <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.25.427948v1">six times less active</a> with the British variant confirm this image. For the strong immune reaction by the vaccine in a healthy person this may not be relevant as there is still enough residual resistance to avert infection. But for people who have built less immunity it can make the difference.</p><p>So the answer to the question whether the British variant is more contagious and more deadly is ambiguous. In the present situation it is - because we have less resistance against it. But if it had appeared in February it might well have been less dangerous than the variant that then became dominant. </p><p></p><p>This might seem an academic discussion but it goes against the common narrative that the virus is becoming more and more dangerous with all those new variants (British, South African and Brazilian). As I see it the virus is mainly making sidesteps to evade the immunity that we have built. And my expectation would be that most of these sidesteps will be less serious than the original. The fact that they arise at such a late stage suggest that in an earlier stage they were less competitive. </p><p>These new variants arise in former hotspots. Those are the
places where people have built most resistance and as a consequence
making a sidestep is the most profitable for the virus.<br /></p><p>I don't see this as two separate epidemics. As I mentioned: the quantity of virus that you encounter determines how sick you become. Quite likely the two variants work together. So if you had already received 60% of your quota to become sick from the common variety you need only the remaining 40% filled in by the British variant. And as the British variant encounters less resistance in your body it has a better chance to become dominant once the illness starts.<br /></p><p>So when one sees an effective reproduction number R of 0.9 for the common variant and 1.3 for the British (to mention just some of the many numbers that have been thrown around) one can take it with a grain of salt. The gap is mainly caused by the replacement effect.</p><p>Seeing the British variant as a sidestep changes how one evaluates it. No longer is it a sign that the epidemic is getting worse and worse. Instead it signals that the virus is under pressure and making an evasive maneuver. It is a first sign of weakness and as such reason for hope.<br /></p><p>Sure, much of this is speculation. But it might explain a lot.<br /></p>Wim Roffelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05950733237377413606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17149992.post-50034957169107971952020-12-24T21:20:00.004+01:002021-01-28T16:19:35.061+01:00The civil rights movement stopped the progress of the Blacks<p> Recently the New York Time had an article "<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/04/opinion/race-american-history.html" target="_blank">Why Did Racial Progress Stall in America?</a>" in which the effects of the civil rights movement on the progress of Black people was discussed. The conclusion was sobering: <i>In
terms of material well-being, Black Americans were moving toward parity
with white Americans well before the victories of the civil rights era.
What’s more, after the passage of civil rights legislation, those
trends toward racial parity slowed, stopped and even reversed.</i></p><p>The authors - who also wrote a book about the subject - seemed puzzled
by it. For me it is a logical effect of polarization. As long as
everything was quiet people tended to see Blacks just like everyone
else. There was no reason to see them different. <br /></p><p>Then came the unrest. Not only Martin Luther King, but also more radical
Black leaders who claimed that Black were different and who didn't
sound very friendly. There was also a lot of news about Black protests
that weren't always that peaceful. That changed the picture for many
White people. Sure, there might be some points in the Black arguments.
But at the same time it was no longer possible to the Blacks as just
another human being who just happened to have another skin. And when a
situation becomes us-versus-them the default human reaction is to side
with your own tribe.</p><p>That is also the reason why I find the present "sensitivity" campaigns
against blackface, Confederate statues and other symbols so foolish.
Study the 1500s and 1600s and you find stories about Catholics
persecuting Protestants and burning them alive. Yet nowadays no
Protestant will object against Catholic symbols for that reason. And
that mutual tolerance was achieved without a phase of hypersensitivity.
One day there may become a consensus that some people from the past
don't deserve a monument or that some customs put some groups in a bad
light. Nothing wrong with that. <br /></p><p>But the present campaigns assume that things will also work in the other
direction: that the more sensitivity you spread the more racism will
decrease. But people are very good at detecting fakes. They can feel the
difference between people who are really hurt by something and
troublemakers who just feign indignation because they hope that it will
lead to some desirable result. Such troublemakers mainly evoke
resentment. Problem is that they may fool themselves to believe that
they are sincere.</p><p>It is seductive to believe that the emancipation of women and blacks can follow the same pattern. But women and men are closely connected so the potential for polarization is limited. And once it became the norm for women to have a career they could when they grew up access the same cultural capital as their brothers. For Blacks there is a much bigger gap to cross.<br /></p><p></p><p>We all know the studies that show that Blacks are underrepresented in certain professions - specially at the top. But a remedy is hard to find. Sometimes people can serve as role models. But when that becomes the main argument one will soon see counterarguments arising about quality.<br /></p><p>Everyone has prejudices. The <a href="https://www.glaxdiversitycouncil.com/resources/harvard-implicit-association-test-iat/#:~:text=The%20Implicit%20Association%20Test%20%28IAT%29%20is%20excellent%20for,others%20based%20upon%20race%2C%20gender%2C%20religion%2C%20culture%2C%20etc.">Implicit Association Test</a> is a famous tool to prove that. But the best you can do is becoming aware of them and using your conscious mind to question them. Seeing a bunch of violent Black protesters or having a meeting with an aggressive Black person will teach the subconscious part of the brains of people such prejudices and are thus to be avoided.<br /></p><p>Fighting racism is simple: just avoid and punish the excesses. Be aware that you too have prejudices and counter them. Most important: behave as if equality is normal. Sure, things will take time. But polarization is mainly counterproductive.<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]--></p>Wim Roffelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05950733237377413606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17149992.post-56784063419135221672020-08-08T20:15:00.000+02:002020-08-08T20:15:01.937+02:00Herd immunity is the wrong term for covid-19<p>It is well known that the severity of a covid-19 infection is directly related to the dose of virus that the patient encountered. A short encounter will seldom land you in the hospital. But having been in a small room for half an hour with somebody who is infected carries a significant risk. <br /></p><p> The question that is almost never addressed is what happens with all those people who get only very lightly infected. It is implicitly assumed that they don't build any resistance and will stay at risk of being infected.</p><p>I don't believe this. I consider it much more likely that the immune system each time builds a little bit of resistance. It may not be enough to make you immune at once. But very likely you will become less sick when you are infected with a heavy dose of the virus later on.</p><p>This makes the "herd immunity" discussion missing the point. Sure, you want that enough people to build immunity. But you want it to happen gradually. This may even happen one virus at a time.<br /></p><p>We can see this light immunity already in action. In most areas covid-19 is nowadays much less deadly than a few months ago.<br /></p><p>This is what naturally happens with influenza and corona viruses. Many people never get sick and yet after one or two years the virus disappears. Obviously they have built some kind of immunity.</p><p>One group that doesn't get this are the youth holding corona parties. Instead of building immunity with low doses they take a high dose at once - and take a considerable risk.</p><p>The other group that doesn't get it are the countries that impose a heavy lockdown. Yes, you may drive down the number of infections that way. But as everyone is locked up they don't get the light infections either and they don't build resistance. So those countries carry the highest risk for a second wave. </p><p>It is Sweden that has understood this model the best. They underestimated the initial deadliness of the disease and as a consequence initially provided insufficient protection to vulnerable groups. But they were right to put the focus on stopping mass meetings and other situations where heavy infections were most likely to occur while simultaneously allowing lower intensity contacts to proceed normally.<br /></p>Wim Roffelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05950733237377413606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17149992.post-76173522661275346992020-05-31T20:47:00.003+02:002020-08-30T11:44:18.526+02:00Inequality - Economics 101<p>In the long term an economy should be in equilibrium. That is: in every part of it as much money should go in as goes out. <br />
<br />
The present Western economies obviously aren't in equilibrium: inequality is increasing. As the rich spend less and differently that means falling demand for many products. To repair that we have quantative easing - the cowardly cop-out by politicians afraid to raise the taxes on the rich. The problem is that it is not a real solution: after some time all the extra money will leak away towards the rich and the next stimulus is needed.<br />
<br />
The world has faced a similar situation in the 1930s. Roosevelt too faced the problem that he needed to keep stimulating the economy. As soon as he relaxed the depression came back. Things only changed structurally after the war had led to a huge increase in the taxes for the rich.<br />
<br />
Of course it is possible to imagine a country that is stable at a larger inequality. Piketty describes it as the 19th centrury's Jane Austen society. And at the moment Latin America still has a very similar society. But such a society as a whole is by definition poorer. Inequality is primarily about driving the poor in a more dependent position. They will get worse education, spend more time unemployed and their economic position will be more unstable. There needs to be a permanent "labor reserve" in order to keep the wages down. As a consequence their contributions to the economy will decrease. The contributions of the rich - on the other hand - will not increase: they will just get a bigger part of the national wealth at the expense of the poor.</p><p></p><p>Rising nations typically put a lot of effort in providing education, healthcare and other services to the whole of the population. They know that that is the key to economic growth. Even retirement benefits fit in that goal as they liberate the workers to focus on their jobs. But in the rich countries that goal tends to slowly get lost. Those still supporting more equality start to use bland arguments like that it is a sign of civilization. But that is a very subjective argument that can mean different things to different people.<br />
<br />
So the road towards a more unequal society is a road with a shrinking economy. And that also means a shrinking tax base. This at a time when the demands on the system will increase due to an increase in the number of poor. That will cause demands for government budget cuts, resulting in more poverty. So there is self reinforcing process going on here.</p><p></p><p></p><div>
The corona crisis has a very bad effect. Many people saw their wages suspended. But income from capital went nearly untouched. Hardly anyone saw his rent reduced. So the net effect is a huge transfer towards the wealthy.</div><div><br /></div><div>Another issue that deserves our attention is how we deal with economic crises. The economy goes up and down and with it the stock prices. That wouldn't be problematic when the same people that owned the shares when they rose sky-high would still own when they sink. But that is often not the case and as a result you will see a lot of bankruptcies when things go down - what can be rather destabilizing for the economy. In reaction we see governments increasingly inclined to avoid such a mayhem. That means bailouts and other ways that allow the rich to avoid the effects of the downside of the economic cycle. This was what made Japan's lost decade(s) so problematic. </div><div> </div><div>Unfortunately we increasingly see similar policies in the US and the EU. The excuses are always the same: pension funds hold some of the shares and bonds too and if one company goes broke others may follow (the Lehman Brothers precedent). But the fact that some companies may go broke shouldn't detract our attention from the fact that the rising share prices in the past increased the share of capital in our economies and that when we support those failing companies we further support that process. It isn't that we never should do it. But we should be aware of the larger process and take compensating measures elsewhere in the economy.<br /></div><br /><div><br /></div>
Wim Roffelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05950733237377413606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17149992.post-49351385344178966502020-03-14T15:42:00.000+01:002020-03-17T17:13:52.972+01:00The two approaches to the Corona virusThe Western approach to Covid-19 is fundamentally different from that of China. <br />
<br />
China treats Covid-19 as a kind of serious disease that must be eradicated. Just like you do with SARS or Ebola. Everyone who is contaminated is isolated - even when he doesn't have symptoms. And when you do that long enough the last patient will recover and the epidemic is stopped.<br />
<br />
The West sees Covid-19 more as a kind of flue. It is impossible to stop the flue: it is too contagious and too many people who are contaminated don't show symptoms. Every year sees a new kind of flue. And in some years it is more lethal as in others. This happens usually when a new strain of virus appears. The Spanish Fever of 1918 and the Hong Kong flu of 1968 are good examples. Covid-19 is not some kind of Influenza virus. However, there are several Corona viruses that cause some kind of innocent cold.<br />
<br />
So the Western assumption is that "everyone" will get it. Think of Merkel saying 70% of the population will get it and Rutte talking about 50%. The main issue in this vision is to slow down the epidemic so that the health care system doesn't get overwhelmed - as happened in Italy. So unlike in China the goal is not to stop the epidemic but to slow it down. <br />
<br />
Both approaches have their risks.<br />
<br />
In the case of China the main risk is that the epidemic will start again once the country restarts to function normally. Or that it will start again in the autumn if like the cold it is connected to the season. Officially less than 100,000 people were contaminated until now so the overwhelming majority of the population didn't build any resistance. When the virus reappears the 6 week lock-down would have been almost for nothing. What might change the picture is a vaccine. But until now this isn't available. <br />
<br />
The Western approach takes it for granted that there will be casualties. But the number of casualties can be limited with good care. And there is a problem as it is very hard to predict how quick things will go. Nobody foretold the quick escalation in Italy. Many Western governments take a wait-and-see approach rather than being pro-active. Yet there are quite a few things a government can do:<br />
- make testing easy and make the threshold low. Make it also quick. In some countries you need to wait a week for the results. That is not good.<br />
- tell anyone who tested positive to self-isolate. Provide services for those for whom self-isolation is problematic.<br />
- test anyone coming from high risk countries and tell them to self isolate for some time.<br />
- take care that you have enough of everything you might need when the epidemic strikes in full force. Hospitals should be well stocked and its staff well-trained.<br />
- things can get out of hand like in Italy. People who get Covid-19 in combination with pneumonia need two to three weeks of intensive care. So plan where you could put extra IC beds, how you could mobilize extra staff and what other things you could do.<br />
- there will always be bureaucratic obstacles. It has been widely published how Chinese officials initially tried to suppress the news. But similar bureaucratic obstacles happen in Western countries too. In the US Trump's obstruction is well known. But there was also the case of the CDC that had problems creating its own test yet blocked the use of other tests. In fact the decentralized nature of Western medicine makes it more likely that bureaucratic problems will arise. It takes planning and effort to overcome such obstacles in the fight against the virus. This should be addressed before a crisis arises.<br />
<br />
Apart from the fact that it requires serious preparation the success of the Western approach depends on how aggressive the virus really is. At some point the number of new cases exploded in <a href="https://www.livescience.com/first-case-coronavirus-found.html">China</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/28/coronavirus-may-have-been-in-italy-for-weeks-before-it-was-detected">Italy</a>. Within days it went from tens to hundreds. But in both cases it is suspected that the virus had been around for weeks or even months. The problem with a severe Covid-19 infection is that the weakening of the patient causes other illnesses like pneumonia. So it is easy to label the illness just as pneumonia and overlook the virus. In the meantime nobody knows how many people have the virus but show no symptoms. <br />
<br />
<a href="http://thesaker.is/how-to-treat-coronavirus-infection-covid-19/">Here</a> is the most extensive description I found of the treatment of Covid-19.<br />
<br />
Wim Roffelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05950733237377413606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17149992.post-47824851551898059852020-01-29T13:10:00.002+01:002020-01-29T13:10:52.046+01:00Why the "moderate" strategy won't work for the DemocratsEzra Klein recently wrote an opinion article ("<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/24/opinion/sunday/democrats-republicans-polarization.html">Why Democrats Still Have to Appeal to the Center, but Republicans Don’t</a>") that argued that conservatives form a monolithic block and the US that is favored by the electoral system in a number of ways. And that to deal with that the Democrats should take a position a bit right from the center to cover enough people.<br />
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There is a lot wrong with this position. First of all, the right isn't monolithic. Look at other countries and you will see conservative parties that get nearly half of the vote only in two-party systems like the US. Conservatives have their own divisions. It is a kind of wonder that deeply religious evangelicals vote for such an immoral man as Trump. It is because they feel cornered. Do remember that case of the baker who refused to make a wedding cake for a gay couple and got in trouble for that? It crosses the boundary of live-and-let-live. It dehumanizes people who believe that gay marriage is not a good thing - until very recently a wide majority of the US population.<br />
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Any European politician who has had a look at the US will confirm that what in the US is called "moderate" would inside Europe be considered extreme right. The Democrats have already been following Klein's advice for many decades. And the results don't confirm the claim. Obama was to the left of Clinton. Yet he won elections and she lost. And the fact that many poor Democrats have voted for Trump while they might have voted for Sanders is he had been a candidate belies the claim that politics can be explained with a simple left-right continuum.<br />
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Politics is about ideas. But "moderate" Democrats don't have ideas. Their economic and defense policies are almost indiscernible from those of the Republicans. They are in fact a light version of the Republicans. And when people get a choice between a light version and real thing many choose the real thing - specially in times of discontent like we have now.<br />
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Many of the ideas of Sanders aren't that radical. If they would have been proposed by someone like Biden they would be widely embraced. But where someone like Sanders is focused on ideas on how to make the life of the common voter better Biden is primarily focused on pleasing his sponsors and not rocking the boat. <br />
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Many Democrats are amazed that Trump is getting away with so much immoral acts and lies. But what people like is that he is someone who stands for something - even when he faces criticism. That is what they like about Sanders too. And that was were Warren made a big mistake when she adapted her Medicare plan after criticism. Sure, if Sanders wins the elections he will have to negotiate with Congress to get his plans adopted and he might very well end with the kind of plan that Warren is proposing now. But that doesn't take away the fact that his present proposal is sound and defensible. Warren is ceding ground before the fight has even started.<br />
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What are Democrats like Biden really standing for? They like to spend a bit on social issues to keep people happy but they are afraid to make any structural changes that might get criticized. They like to criticize countries like Russia. But that looks suspiciously like yet another type of foreigner bashing - not that different from racism. They like also to go to extreme lengths to defend gays and transgender rights. But result looks a lot like the bashing of "deplorable" poor whites and evangelicals. <br />
<br />
Parties that don't have plans to make people enthusiastic for are bound to focus on demonizing people instead. The Democratic Party has been falling in that trap. Unfortunately its leadership still seems to be unaware of the problem.Wim Roffelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05950733237377413606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17149992.post-63060039227337251392019-12-19T21:14:00.001+01:002019-12-22T18:30:24.129+01:00The final OAS report on the Bolivian electionsAs it proved to be rather difficult to find the final OAS report - that was published on 4 december - on the Bolivian elections here the <a href="http://www.oas.org/es/sap/deco/Informe-Bolivia-2019/0.1%20Informe%20Final%20-%20Analisis%20de%20Integridad%20Electoral%20Bolivia%202019%20(OSG).pdf" target="_blank">link</a>. Note that unlike the preliminary report and its annexes the final report is only in Spanish and only available as pdf. Obviously they are trying to restrict the distribution of the report. The report contains 95 pages and is accompanied by 9 appendixes that contain about 400 pages in total.<br />
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To help those who want to read it I hosted a <a href="https://www.prestools.com/oas-bolivian-elections.html" target="_blank">machine translated (in English) copy of the main report</a>. Note that the first page is mostly white.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://fair.org/home/reuters-shields-oas-over-false-claims-that-sparked-bolivia-coup/">An article on FAIR</a> is the best rebuttal of the OAS claims that I have seen thus far.Wim Roffelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05950733237377413606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17149992.post-5066221155919438262019-10-24T12:26:00.000+02:002019-10-31T10:11:22.696+01:00The US is not in Syria to fight ISISOne often hears defenders of the US presence in Syria claiming that the US is there to fight ISIS. In contrast some opponents claim that the US created ISIS.<br />
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I won't enter the question whether the US was involved with the creation of ISIS here. Those claims are based on quotes from US official reports and some statements by US politicians. Instead I will discuss here the timeline of US involvement in Syria and what it actually did (and didn't do).<br />
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- The US got involved after ISIS had made great advances in Syria and threatened the Kurds in Kobani. If the actions of the US had been purely logical it would have gotten involved earlier. It would have given some arms to the Kurds and dropped some bombs on ISIS and that would have been enough to turn the chances on the battle field. Instead it waited until there was an international uproar that gave it an excuse to enter Syria and a Congress resolution within the US. Without such an excuse its entrance would have been hardcore illegal.<br />
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- After the US got involved they and their Kurdish allies conquered much of Northeastern Syria. After that they stopped. The Turks occupied Jarabulus and blocked the road to the West and further south there lived hardly any Kurds so the SDF wasn't enthusiastic about spilling blood to conquer those areas.<br />
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- Then ISIS conquered Palmyra in May 2015. To come there it had to cross 200 km of desert. Yet the US didn't drop a single bomb to stop them. Shortly afterwards pro-Russian media reported that American diplomats were preparing Western capitals for the fall of Damascus to ISIS.<br />
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- After Russia got involved one of its first actions was to go after the oil trade of ISIS that provided much of its income. A few bombs did a lot to stop that trade. The US had never bothered to do so.<br />
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- In September 2016 the US - allegedly by mistake but many people don't believe that - bombed Syrian government troops in Deir Ezzor. This almost led to the fall of this government held enclave to ISIS.<br />
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- Some time after Russia had become involved and the chances on the battlefield had changed the Syrian government started an offensive from Aleppo eastwards towards Raqqa. Suddenly the US felt the need to go south towards Raqqa too - at the end of 2016. Obviously preventing that Raqqa came in the hands of the government was more important as getting ISIS out of Raqqa.<br />
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- The first thing the US/SDF coalition did near Raqqa was to cross the Euphrates and occupy Tabqa and its dam and surroundings. The obvious goal was block all the roads so that Syrian Army offensive couldn't go further south (further from the river there was desert). In the end the Syrian Army outsmarted them. But there were some very tense moments.<br />
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- The attack on Raqqa lasted many months and completely destroyed the city. No other city in Syria is so destroyed. According to the Kurds the US refused to give them advanced weapons that would have made them more effective against ISIS.<br />
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- The Syrian Army moved further south and conquered Deir Ezzor. Shortly south of the city it crossed the Euphrates in an effort to conquer the oil and gas fields there. However, they encountered fierce resistance from ISIS and didn't come far. The US - that still was stuck near Raqqa some 120 north - suddenly felt the need to move to the area too. In contrast to the Syrian Army they hardly faced any resistance from ISIS and could move tens of kilometers a day. It was the SDF/US coalition that ended up controlling the oil and gas fields - thanks to ISIS.<br />
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- The Syrian Army moved still further south and ended up controlling the whole west bank of the Euphrates. However, the US forbade it to attack ISIS on the other bank of the river and threatened to bomb them if they tried. This alone delayed the defeat of ISIS in Syria by many months.<br />
<br />
<br />
I don't know what the official mission of the US Army in Syria was but it doesn't look like defeating ISIS was the top priority.Wim Roffelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05950733237377413606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17149992.post-87351608158439970642019-07-20T12:50:00.000+02:002019-07-22T09:12:07.258+02:00Why painting Trump as a racist won't workAs Russiagate is losing more and more of its credibility the Democratic leadership in the US has found a new issue to demonize Trump: racism.<br />
<br />
There can be little doubt that Trump is playing on the racist instinct of some people. But many politicians have done so in the past. Even much of the appeal of the capital punishment is based on racism.<br />
<br />
<b>racism</b><br />
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Racism is a complex issue. Even many very liberal white people will initially be shocked when they find that their new neighbors are black or that their daughter is dating a black boy. Only after this initial shock their rational brain will take over and consider that there are good black people and bad white people too and that they shouldn't judge people just on the color of their skin. There are <a href="https://implicit.harvard.edu/implicit/Study?tid=-1" target="_blank">many psychological tests</a> that explore this subject.<br />
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While this instinctual sentiment is repressed in much of society it has its refuges such as some birthday parties and some pubs. And there are people who just indulge their instincts wherever they are and who just the rest of society just has learned to live with. But such people marginalize themselves and aren't taken too seriously. Ku Klux Klan type open racists are rare nowadays. <br />
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More problematic nowadays is the more civilized type of person that shows lip service to the societal norms while at the same time he or she "understands" the racists worries. Mass incarceration was a recent symptom of this attitude.<br />
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Much of this happens unconscious. We are happy to see that specific guy incarcerated and we don't like that boyfriend of our daughter. But we never realize that if exactly the same guy had had a white instead of a black skin we would have judged differently.<br />
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<b>Trump</b><br />
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Trump is primarily a bully: someone who shows his "strength" by humiliating other people. Of course people against whom other people have prejudices too are easy targets.<br />
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Trump is also very egocentric. His discrimination against black tenants and employees may well have business reasons. He might be able to charge more for an apartment when there are no black neighbors and black employees might deter some guests in his casino's and hotels. I am not sure whether this really works. But I can understand that he might reason this way.<br />
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Trump isn't a hard core racist. He doesn't have inner convictions that white people are superior and should be on top. I doubt whether he has any convictions whatever except for a greed for power, wealth and recognition. He is just playing on widespread sentiments.<br />
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Trump has an image as taboo breaker. So he can go further than most of us without losing the respect of society. But there are limits for him too and he knows them and respects them. This is the reason that I don't expect that this new Democratic campaign will have any effect. Of course one day he might make a miscalculation and go too far even for his supporters. But don't count on that.<br />
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Trump's racist exploits are harmful and disgusting. But it would be naive to assume that that will result in falling polls. There are too many examples from the past of politicians who thrived despite (or thanks to) similar behavior.<br />
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This doesn't mean that that the Democrats shouldn't criticize Trump for his statements. But they shouldn't pretend that these are the most important issues of the country. Other issues are much more important. By ignoring the issues that people really care about - as the Democrats have done too long because of Russiagate - they are actually strengthening Trump. <br />
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<b>Fighting Trump</b><br />
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Both Clinton and Obama were presidents of the opinion polls. Every measure they took was polled extensively. This worked for them in the sense that they won elections.<br />
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But ruling by the poll means ruling without a big vision. And that has consequences. One consequence was visible with Obamacare. The lack of vision meant that the project became vulnerable to demonization by the Republicans. And the multitude of interested parties caused complications that nearly got the project cancelled.<br />
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Another problem is that many people don't have an opinion about many subjects. In those cases both Clinton and Obama tended to listen to big business and other interest groups. And so the neocons got their wars and the finance sector its deregulation. And when the peanuts that those presidents gave to the common people were finished the big presents for the interest groups remained.<br />
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It may not appear in opinion polls because it is too abstract but people do notice that their interests are ignored in many cases. And it is the resulting discontent that has resulted in the election of Trump. For all his faults Trump is a man who at least suggests that he will ignore the special interests and listen to the common people.<br />
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In order to get the trust of the voters back the Democrats need once again to embrace ideas and visions. Unfortunately at the moment the party is held hostage by a leadership that is wedded to special interests. It preaches "moderation" but that is just a code word for maintaining the status quo and not rocking the boat.<br />
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This doesn't necessarily mean that Sanders and AOC are the future of the Democratic Party. They are so influential at the moment because they are the most visible ones offering an alternative vision. Since the last presidential elections the enthusiasm that Sanders raised has already caused a shift in the party towards more vision. Once the party leadership is changed this could turn in a real change of how the party works. <br />
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Some of the left wing program points - such as universal health care and free college - make sense. Other countries have similar things and that works well. Other points - such as the New Green Deal and abolishing ICE - are not only radical: they are also ill-considered. Every country in the world has some kind of immigration service - although most aren't as vile as the ICE. And the New Green Deal is a random package of proposals for environmental policy. But environmental policy is a matter of improvisation and experimentation. Ten years from now the New Green Deal will very likely look hopelessly outdated. The voters don't want or need this kind of ideological rigidity. They just want to be convinced that their politicians take those issues seriously.<br />
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No longer pandering to special interests will also mean a different way of fund raising. But as Sanders showed in the last elections: that is possible.<br />
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Vision is an abstract thing. It is not so much in the specific program points as in the way choices are made. It means politicians who see themselves as representatives of the people who voted for them instead of as political entrepreneurs who can win power with the rights mix of program points and marketing.<br />
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Campaigning on a vision will also decrease the polarization in American politics. An important reason for this polarization is that there are almost no real differences between the parties. Republicans have always had strong ties with special interests. That leaves both parties without ideals. So neither has something to profile itself on. Neither has good arguments against the other. And neither has real reasons to want power other than the benefits of power itself for the politicians involved. So instead both resort to demonization. Obama's birth certificate, the mendacious campaign against Obamacare, Russiagate and (the denunciation of) Trump's foul mouth and racism: what all these campaigns have in common is a distortion of reality and - most importantly - a lack of relevance for what voters really want. As both parties have wedded themselves to special interests they don't want to discuss real issues. So they keep alternating between bringing up phony issues (or marginal issues like toilet rights for transgenders) and just obstructing the other side.<br />
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Once the Democrats make this switch the appeal of Trump's behavior will diminish. Racism is feel-good policy. It can capture the attention of people only for a short time. Sooner or later they will realize that you cannot eat hatred and they will start to see Trump as a salesman of hot air. The trigger to such a realization is usually that another politician offers something real.<br />
<br />Wim Roffelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05950733237377413606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17149992.post-8335491646847496742019-06-30T16:46:00.001+02:002019-06-30T16:46:24.818+02:00How not to present Democratic campaign pointsThe recent campaign debates among the Democratic candidates for the primaries showed mainly how not to present proposals. The proposals seemed made for the East Coast elite, the Democratic Party leadership and the Liberal press. Everyone seemed to compete to win their favors. Not those of Joe Sixpack with a low income.<br />
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Let's look at some proposals:<br />
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<b>Universal health insurance </b><br />
<i>What would work:</i> you
will pay less for the same service, you will have a wider choice of gp's
and you no longer risk to lose your insurance when you are laid off.<br />
<br />
<i>Considerations: </i>Setting such goals turns universal
health insurance into a "means" instead of an end. It shows that you are
open to other solutions as long as you can achieve your goals. That way
it takes the dogmatic stigma away.<br />
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<b>Immigration</b><br />
<i>What would work: </i>Illegal
immigration is caused by a bad economy in some countries. We can do something about that. We can give them better conditions of
trade. We can stop trying to overthrow their governments and instead
focus on real cooperation.<br />
But we should treat the people that do arrive decently - even when send them back. After all we are a decent country with strong values.<br />
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<i>Considerations: </i>America obviously cannot allow billions of people to enter the country. So don't make remarks that can be interpreted as such. Instead offer a solution that matches your values with the desired outcome of abetting the fear of being inundated by immigrants.<br />
Of course many of the Democratic candidates won't do this because in their hearts they do want wars in other countries.<br />
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<b>The environment</b><br />
<i>What would work:</i> We need to do more to save energy. We need to do more to promote alternative sources. We need to do more to force the industry to become cleaner. And guess what: it will hardly cost us anything when we do it smart. A cleaner environment will make us healthier. And alternative energy is increasingly become cost effective.<br />
<br />
<i>Considerations: </i>Environmental policies too often embrace fads that turn out badly. Biofuel, carbon tax, electric cars: there is an endless stream of proposals that turn out bad. <br /><i></i><br />
The New Green Deal is exactly the kind of formula that tries to lock people into defending such proposals.<br />
In this area there are quite a few subjects on which there is almost universal agreement. Focus on those and don't waste your credibility on defending more controversial proposals. Even if you might personally agree with them it is just bad strategy.<br />
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<b>Reparations for slavery</b><br />
<i>What would work: </i>It is obvious that there are still remaining effects of slavery such as discrimination, segregation and low income. We need policies to address that. In some situations that can be positive discrimination. In other situations that can be the raising of aware that discrimination is taking place when for example a big corporation is all-white. And sometimes it can mean establishing services and building infrastructure that focus on predominantly black communities.<br />
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<i>Considerations:</i>There is no need for some study of the effects of slavery. Every can see them. And everyone can see how hard it has been to get rid of them.<br />
Reparations won't fix anything. Suppose that you would give every black person 30,000 dollar - what in total would amount to one trillion. Then the black community will live better for a few years. And after that it will in mostly the same position. In fact worse as people will start to claim that they already have been compensated and that they have nothing to show for it.<br />
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<br />Wim Roffelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05950733237377413606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17149992.post-21119580309787537612019-01-22T19:52:00.000+01:002019-01-22T19:52:13.767+01:00Bernie Sanders is not a populistPopulist translates as a politician who tells the people what they want to hear. Of course every politician tells people what they want to hear. You won't win elections by insulting your audience and telling them that you will increase taxes, raise the retirement age and offer nothing in return. <br />
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What discerns discerns populists in the usual definition from other politicians is opportunism. "Normal" politicians follow to a considerable extent their convictions. They may discard some of their more extreme beliefs as unfeasible and they may highlight the attractive parts of their plans while hiding the less attractive parts, but for the most part they follow their convictions. <br />
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Populists on the other hand have few fixed ideas about what they want to do. They will promise people whatever they want to hear. Only when they are in power will they bother to look how to implement their ideas. Many of their promises will vaporize at the moment they are chosen. As long as they deliver a few and organize good pr around it their supporters will be happy.<br />
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Trump is a typical populist. Very likely he wouldn't care about a wall at all if it wasn't so popular with his audience. His promises about infrastructure have long been forgotten. And his trade wars to protect America's industry have become a bit messy as he is shooting from the hip and has no idea what how such things work.<br />
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Sanders on the other hand has a clear idea what he wants. His ideas are not mainstream and if he might rise to power he certainly would encounter situations that he hadn't thought through. But his promises derive from his ideas about society and not from opportunism. So it would be wrong to call him a populist.Wim Roffelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05950733237377413606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17149992.post-91258550468530787212019-01-16T14:24:00.002+01:002019-01-16T14:24:30.528+01:00Trump can still win the next electionsIt is striking how little has changed since the elections. The liberal press and most Democratic politicians are still talking about Trump in the same way: he is incompetent and outrageous, his tweets are ridiculous, he has no program and he is a friend of Russia.<br />
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In fact Trump has a program. In fact he was called a populist by many of the people who didn't like that program. They forget that "populist" means listening to the common people and telling them what they want to hear. Of course there can be an element of insincerity in this and many populists act very different from what they promised. But that still means that there was a program. Trump's program contains issues like immigration (for which he wants to build his wall) and America's decaying industries (for which he has started all his trade wars). <br />
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Of course you can argue that Trump's analysis of those problems and his solutions are wrong (I do think so). But that doesn't distract from the fact that as long as you don't provide an alternative solution Trump is the only one who has a solution for those problems. And that makes him an attractive candidate for many.<br />
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As for all those other points (Trump's incompetence, tweets and Russiagate), they are primarily tools to distract the public from the fact that those Democratic politicians don't have alternative solutions to the problems Trump addresses. But unfortunately for them only Trump's adversaries are impressed by those points. His supporters overwhelmingly see them for what they: efforts by people who don't have an argument to change the subject.<br />
Wim Roffelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05950733237377413606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17149992.post-57368732484331360672018-11-11T13:38:00.004+01:002018-11-12T11:06:00.244+01:00Globalization is a threat not an insuranceYou hear it often: more trade means that we get to know each other better and that there is less chance that we start a war against each other. It is one of the main arguments in favor of free trade.<br />
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I have serious doubts about this. The first World War happened when the world was very integrated. And when the world resumed globalization after World War I it ended in the Depression of the 1930s - very much an economic war between countries. More recently we see Trump taking on China - despite huge trade ties.<br />
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The problems with trade are many:<br />
- First of all there are the terms of trade: they are to be negotiated and that can make them quite arbitrary. Just look at the oil price to get the idea. <br />
- A related problem is dependency: if you depend on other countries to produce certain goods for you they are in a position to blackmail you. The increasing use by the US of economic sanctions is a good example.<br />
- The theory of relative advantage made sense in a time when most trade was about natural resources. But nowadays most trade is about industrial products. And you can place a factory everywhere. Nowadays free trade often means the advantage of the incumbent: they have the patents, the infrastructure, the skilled workers, etc. and it takes a lot of effort for a country that doesn't have that to build it up. <br />
- Some sectors are seen as important strategically either because they are believed to be growth industries or because they are related to defense industries. If you want to be able to build tanks you better have some steel works.<br />
- Finally there is the issue of perception. If there are problems and you are dependent on others, it is easy to blame those others. That was what we saw happening in the 1930s and that is what Trump is doing now. If the US would be self sufficient Trump wouldn't be able to blame other countries for America's economic problems.<br />
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Trade has two important functions: it allows poorer countries to catch up and it helps spreading technology. But I believe that outside that its benefits are limited.<br />
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Just imagine that the US would be self-sufficient. Trump would have nothing to complain about America's trade partners. A politician like him would be forced to focus on internal issues instead. <br />
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I believe that - when all things are equal - we should strive to localize production. It is a matter of giving people as much control over their life as possible. <br />
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Wim Roffelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05950733237377413606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17149992.post-48048217142382862072018-11-11T12:30:00.000+01:002018-11-12T11:57:58.364+01:00The depressed president TrumpThere has been lots of speculation about the psychological health of president Trump. Some Democrats would even like to impeach him as "unfit" for the job under the 25th amendment. There is even a book where 27 mental health experts discuss Trump and come with diagnoses like hedonistic, bully, sexual predator, narcissist, paranoia, sociopath and dementia. My take would be depression.<br />
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Did you ever see Trump enthusiastic? His voice is dark and monotonic. Even about becoming president he was ambivalent.<br />
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One property of depression is realism. When you ask in any organisation who is above average a wide majority will claim to believe they are - what is statistically impossible. Normal people see the world through rose tinted glasses and are often more optimistic than the facts justify. Under depression that falls away and people see reality in all its ugliness. It is that realism that enabled Trump to win the primaries and consequently the elections. He saw his adversaries in all their weaknesses and used that against them. It is also what the voters loved from him: he said things like they were.<br />
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The backside of realism is a kind of Machiavellian realism. Pretending to be better than you are works. So Trump shamelessly does so. Being demanding works too. It evades Trump that the world would be a living hell when everyone would behave that way.<br />
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Depression is often associated with a lack of energy. Trump spends much less time and effort on his job as his predecessors.<br />
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Depression is also linked to overuse of social media. Trump's addiction to Twitter certainly counts.<br />
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Depression makes on self-centered. That strengthens the narcissist tendencies that Trump already had.<br />
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Trump can be quite aggressive. That doesn't fit the image many people have of depression. However, irritability is a <a href="https://www.elementsbehavioralhealth.com/mood-disorders/irritable-depression-when-sadness-feels-like-anger/">quite common symptom</a> of depression.<br />
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Depression is often associated with feeling locked in by your own assumptions. Trump's conviction that the world is divided in winners and losers and that he should be a winner at any price is certainly the kind of conviction that can lock one in. <br />
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Is it good to have such a president? It depends on your view of the world. Many Republicans like it to see someone who says things like they are and acts accordingly. On the other hand: in the real world many things are quite complicated. It takes effort to understand them. And Trump isn't likely to put in that effort.<br />
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Wim Roffelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05950733237377413606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17149992.post-86475141137612452712018-08-30T11:06:00.002+02:002018-11-13T09:49:42.912+01:00What Obama forgot to do and why he was a weak presidentIn this post I will provide a list of policies that Obama should have done if he had followed really Democratic policies and hadn't sold out to the establishment. Like FDR he should have exposed the crimes of the rich and brought them to justice. Instead he chose for subtle policy changes.<br />
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- Obama could in 2008 have ordered investigations in the financial malversations and sent people to jail. He instead for some subtle rule changes accompanied by massive financial aid. As a consequence the financial industry is now more centralized than ever.<br />
- Obama chose to ignore the Clinton Foundation - laying the foundation for the public acceptance of Trump troublesome financial past.<br />
- Obama did nothing to punish the torturers of the Bush era. As a consequence the CIA is now headed by a torturer.<br />
- Obama did nothing to address all the increasingly absurd voting suppression and district meandering schemes. He should have introduced a proposal for reform. He should also have used his position as a pulpit to expose abusive practices. And he should have done so in an explicit way, comparing some states with authoritarian regimes.<br />
- Obama did nothing to reduce the influence of money on politics.<br />
- Obama took some measures to stop government subsidies to fraudulent education institutes. He should have gone much further and prosecuted them as the frauds they were. If Trump had been prosecuted for his fraudulent "Trump University", (ex-)employees and students had been asked to testify and the premises of the institution had been searched for evidence Trump wouldn't be president now. Sure, given the dubious state of the judicial system this might not have resulted in a conviction - but that would only have been an excuse to campaign for stricter laws and against "judges" who are incapable of understanding that justice should be blind.<br />
- Obama did nothing to attack the Koch Brothers. Wouldn't it be time to have a really good look at all the pollution that their companies cause? Sure, these guys can afford judicial fire power that will prolong procedures forever. But in the end the government is the strongest and it can make life very hard for them.<br />
- Obama didn't abolish the Patriot Act.<br />
- With Obamacare he did implement a reform, but only after endless foot dragging and compromising. He erroneously assumed that such an important law needed to be bi-partisan - forgetting that support from a majority of the population is at least as important. Few people understood how the law would work out and as a consequence the Republicans were able to demonize the law. So it was a big mistake to allow endless discussions. The correct strategy would have been to quickly launch a proposal and then to be open to amendments by the Republicans - but without allowing them to delay the introduction.<br />
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The consequences of the Obamacare debacle were far reaching. They cost him the midterms and they taught the Republicans that obstruction pays. And then we saw Obama carry on with executive orders. In fact he could have taken back the initiative by looking what the Republican Congressmen wanted. That would have broken Republican unity while helping Obama to look like someone who achieved things. But he never did so and his contact with Republicans was notoriously poor.<br />
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A special mention deserves Obama's relationship with Israel and - specially - Netanyahu. As a <a href="https://mondoweiss.net/2018/08/foreign-continually-netanyahu/">recent good analysis based on the new book from Ben Rhodes</a> shows, Obama started with a rather balanced policy and then became gradually increasingly pro-Israel under pressure from Netanyahu and Israel lobby. I watched it happen with astonishment. Netanyahu is a classical bully. When you give in to him he will see that as weakness and he will push even harder. In that light I was astonished to see Obama react to Netanyahu's early transgressions with a huge financial support package for Israel. We saw the same thing later when Netanyahu insulted Obama by addressing Congress. Any skillful politician would have found a way to punish Netanyahu - for example by not vetoing some UN resolution or by giving some kind of support to his enemies. Obama did nothing. He kept silent and hoped that the complaints of his supporters would have any effect. But predictably the Congress and the American Jewish lobby became increasing aggressive for pro-Israel policies. Many of them just joined a winning team: what is the point of supporting Obama on a point where you know he won't achieve anything.<br />
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We see this same respect for power in many of his policies. He strengthened the secret services and went after journalists and people like Assange. The scene in Michael Moore's new film about the Flint water crisis where he sides completely with the authorities and abandons the people who have to drink polluted water is painful to watch. Despite being the most powerful man on earth he still felt the need to please authorities rather than the responsibility to use his power to make the world a better place.<br />
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Sure, the Obama administration did impose quite a lot of fines on companies. But those fines worked just like a cost of business. Companies became a bit more careful but the public expectations didn't change. Obama should have had something like the FDR's Pecora commission of the Senate that exposed financial malversations for the big public in the 1930s and greatly contributed to public support for financial reform. If you want change you shouldn't be shy to say what is wrong with the present situation.<br />
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As Rhodes remarks: he doesn't read much and obviously isn't an intellectual. And that made that - although he might sympathize with certain ideas - he didn't have the strength of conviction to make them reality. The vagueness of his ideas made him time and again hesitate.<br />
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But intellect isn't the most important thing. He could have hired someone and listened to him. The most important thing is leadership=strength=chutzpah=balls: the ability to go against the stream and win. And that was what Trump was showing. By making politically incorrect remarks and standing for them he showed that he wasn't a pushover. People want leadership and he offered signs of it. And although his actual program turned out to be quite different from what he promised he certainly hasn't been afraid to impose his will. <br />
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Wim Roffelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05950733237377413606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17149992.post-6461724110792419892018-07-29T13:50:00.000+02:002018-08-01T21:09:05.044+02:00What Soros did wrongRecently the New York Times has a magazine article about George Soros. The title <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/17/magazine/george-soros-democrat-open-society.html">"George Soros Bet Big on Liberal Democracy. Now He Fears He Is Losing."</a>. Of course the article mostly refers to Hungary and Poland, with also some reference to Trump. In this article I will explain why he is losing. <br />
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According to the article Soros' main intellectual inspirator was Popper from who he got the concept of the "open society". In this context Soros' Jewish identity is mentioned: he wants societies where Jews feel welcome. The big question is of course how you can achieve that.<br />
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For many people the melting pot of New York and London is the inspiration. You can meet there people from many ethnic groups living together without problems. I am not convinced. Such places are mainly for people in their 20s who haven't settled down. They usually don't have deep interests and ties. Such places aren't very attractive to raise a family: when people settle down they do it somewhere else. <br />
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Another point of inspiration are the "cosmopolitans": these are people like diplomats and businessmen working for big companies who move regularly from one country to the next. But these people form their own tribe. They tend to have their own schools and churches and to mainly form ties among each other. Sometimes they don't even move: the Eurocrats in Brussels are (in)famous for the extent to which they form their own tribe that looks down on their compatriots back home as "provincials". Cosmopolitans don't care about democracy. They just want what they see as "good government". And if they don't like what they see many will just move to another country.<br />
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Some people see the mono-ethnicity of many Western countries as the problem. Hitler happened in mono-ethnic Germany - not in the multi-ethnic Habsburg empire. And the Armenian genocide happened in mono-ethnic Turkey and not in its predecessor the Ottoman empire. I have met several influential Jews who openly stated that they are in favor of mass immigration because that would end the mono-ethnic character of my country and improve the position of the Jews. <br />
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But the facts don't support this position. Those multi-ethnic empires faced quite regularly ethnic uprisings - to which they often reacted very brutally. Sure, Jews were often treated quite well. But that was just because their dispersion and low social status guaranteed that they were no threat to the central government. Europe's most anti-Jewish country is Poland. Poland is now rather mono-ethnic, but before World War II there were many areas where Germans, Poles and Jews formed similarly sized segments of the population. It looks like multi-ethnicity is a source of friction while in a mono-ethnic state you at least know who is the boss. As part of a minority you may not always like that but at least you have peace.<br />
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<b>What does work?</b><br />
Real openness depends on mutual trust and respect. Yet Soros has done the opposite. In many of the formerly communist countries Soros supported the liberal parties while doing everything he could opposing conservative - often Christian-democratic - parties.<br />
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This was a gross violation of democracy. Democracy is something between the people of a country or a region. Outsiders should not interfere. They can be very harmful. It is not only that they can help shift the election results so much that a minority becomes the majority and can rule the country. Even more harmful is that they can poison the political discussion in a country.<br />
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Politics isn't black and white. You can support refugees and also respect the feelings of people who feel no longer at home in their own region because too may strangers with foreign habits are arriving. You can be an atheist and still respect people who are deeply religious. You can support free trade yet care about the fate of those who lose their jobs.<br />
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Sure, this means that you will need to make compromises. But isn't that at the core of democracy? But when you are a foreign outsider like Soros you don't hear what the other side says. And you force the party that you support to ignore it too. What of course blocks the local dialogue.<br />
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Now his puppets have started to lose. And instead of concluding that his approach was wrong Soros is doubling down. He now tries to employ the EU to do his bidding and force those countries to behave like he wishes.<br />
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It is just as stupid as the Democrats in the US who keep whining about Russian influence. Real politics starts with listening and a dialogue. Making noise about things that people don't care about will just annoy them.Wim Roffelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05950733237377413606noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17149992.post-53168898009692794762018-02-25T22:50:00.001+01:002018-02-25T22:50:46.855+01:00The "influencing the elections" madnessSo the Russians have influenced the US elections... Really?<br />
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The Russians operate one or more "alternative news" operations. But so do American groups. And it is not punishable as the US has freedom of press. So instead an obscure law forbidding foreigners to influence the elections was unearthed. Of course such a law is plainly ridiculous in the internet era. What about all those newspapers and bloggers who wrote what a horrible person Trump is? Shouldn't they be persecuted too? And all those non-Americans who posted something on Facebook - or just "liked" some post regarding Trump or Clinton?<br />
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Of course there is a fake news problem. See for example <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/21/fake-news-item-on-parkland-shooting-become-top-youtube-video.html">this issue about how a fake claim that one of the spokesmen of the children of the Florida high school were there was a shooting was an actor</a>. But the main problem was that Youtube promoted it so much. But the problem here is not the fake news. It is that Youtube promotes is so much. As long as Youtube - and other social media - promote anything that catches eyeballs it will stay attractive for people to provide fake news.<br />
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In the meantime Western politicians have used the fake news issue to open the attack on the freedom of media. But actually it isn't about fake news. They recognize that themselves when they accuse the Russian campaign as polarizing the US. As anyone who follows censorship issues in dictatorships knows this is one the favorite arguments of dictators too for censorship. We may be losing our freedoms.Wim Roffelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05950733237377413606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17149992.post-49422455378957827372018-02-02T14:08:00.003+01:002018-02-02T14:08:34.143+01:00Merkel's negotiation "strategy"As the Independent described it, Merkel <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/angela-merkel-theresa-may-brexit-demands-press-briefing-davos-eu-talks-a8183436.html">ridicules Theresa May's Brexit demand during secret press briefing</a>.<br />
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<i>Angela Merkel reportedly left journalists “laughing uproariously” after mocking Theresa May‘s attempts to negotiate a trading relationship post-Brexit. <br />
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The German chancellor said she had been trapped in a recurring conversation with the British Prime Minister since the EU referendum in 2016.<br />
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Speaking to a “secret” press meeting at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Ms Merkel claimed Ms May had repeatedly asked her to “make me an offer”, according to a report by ITV political pundit Robert Peston.<br />
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Ms Merkel said that when she replied “but you’re leaving – we don’t have to make you an offer. Come on what do you want?”, Ms May replied again, “Make me an offer.”<br />
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“And so, according to Mrs Merkel, the two find themselves trapped in a recurring loop of ‘what do you want?’ and ‘make me an offer’,” Mr Peston wrote on his Facebook page.</i><br />
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The journalists seemed to believe Merkel was right. I believe she is terribly wrong and just showing how shallow and malicious she is.<br />
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May has made proposals and Merkel has rejected them. It is no more than decent that after rejecting a proposal you make a counter-proposal. But not for Merkel. She likes to keep other people in a dependent position and keep saying "no" until they exactly "propose" what Merkel wants. <br />
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Merkel had the same "strategy" in the Greek debt crisis. It worked for her: she got what she wanted. But it certainly didn't result in the best possible solution. For that you need to talk and to exchange arguments. Not naked power plays.<br />
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Merkel is showing herself a superficial "leader" who in the end only cares about herself and "winning".Wim Roffelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05950733237377413606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17149992.post-50461859116230595542018-01-13T10:45:00.001+01:002018-01-13T10:45:40.384+01:00The downsides of civil disobedienceOne of the most important achievements of humankind is the state. For most people anarchy is one of the worst situations you can have and people tend to be happy when some crime boss or war lord fills the vacuum: anything is better than nothing.<br />
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Of course there have always been people who thought otherwise. The anarchists of yore and some libertarians nowadays are examples. But these are marginal groups that operate in the shadows of states. When they try to live out their ideals in some kind of community of their own it either doesn't last very long or it stays very small scale.<br />
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But there is one remarkable exception nowadays: our media have started to paint civil disobedience against dictators and even democratically elected rulers that they don't like (think of Yanukovych) as a good thing. One standard element of modern color revolutions is the occupation of the most central square in an effort to make the government look weak. And all the theatre and amusement that if offered to the protesters mocks the ruler as powerless and incompetent.<br />
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Unlike what many think this is not in the spirit of Gandhi. Gandhi's famous action against the salt tax was more a kind of tax evasion. And the days long walk they took to go to the sea was an indirect recognition of the supreme power of the (colonial) government. <br />
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This denigration of the state in the color revolutions has long term negative consequences in the form of instability. The authority of the state stays weakened long after the dictator has left. In some cases you even see that after a few years a new dictator arises to "clean up the mess".<br />
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The problem with any revolution is discontinuity. Even when considerable attention is paid to integrating the old order - <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/tunisia/2017-07-06/tunisia-success-story">like in Tunisia</a> - the discontinuity causes long lasting friction and problems. You don't see such friction in countries like South Korea and Taiwan where the transition to democracy comes from the government. They have their own problems in the form of long lasting elements of the old order - but these tend to be less detrimental.<br />
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Another type of civil disobedience we see in Catalonia. Puigdemont may have thought that he was smart organizing a referendum but he was just using another trick where are mob is mobilized to make the state look powerless. To understand where this could lead one has to think up a scenario where the opponents of independence would simultaneously organize a similar mass mobilization in support of their case - for example painting a Spanish flag on every lamppost. The region would be on the brink of civil war. What went wrong in the Catalan case was not that the government tried to block the referendum - although you can always argue that they could have done it smarter. If the government has stayed idle Puigdemont would have continued his policy of creating "facts on the ground" and at some point Madrid would have been forced to either recognize independence or to use even more violence as many independence supporters would believe that they had already won and feel robbed.<br />
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This kind of conflict should be solved by politicians in parliaments and negotiations. It should not be solved between mobilized mobs: that is a recipe for civil war. What Madrid did wrong in this case was that waited to long to interfere. As soon as the Catalan parliament had decided to hold a referendum it should have suspended that parliament, made arrests and take other measures to prevent the referendum to take place.<br />
Wim Roffelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05950733237377413606noreply@blogger.com0